Okay, so I'm a little behind. The championship game was Week 16 and here we are, the Monday after Week 17. Whatever. Week 17 didn't count in my league, so I don't care if this recap is a bit late. Besides, I won the championship game, so this recap can go up whenever I damn well please!
So, yeah, I won my fantasy football championship over Team Dreher, and won comfortably, 95-63. But it didn't start out comfortable. First, David Garrard put up 21 points in the Thursday night game and Tashard Choice put up 17 in the Saturday night game, and both guys were taking up spots on the bench. Leaving 38 points on the bench usually isn't a sign of good things to come, but it turns out I didn't need it (though my bench put up 68 points, which also would have won the championship). Tyler Thigpen made me feel good about leaving Garrard's 21 points on the bench by putting up 25 himself (and that could've been more if he hadn't thrown 3 picks). I also got big games from Chris Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Reggie Wayne; thankfully these guys were playing on teams that still had something to play for in Week 16. I was also helped on the other side by Anquan Boldin being inactive (no reason to push him when the Cardinals had nothing to play for) and the Bucs defense scoring a whopping -6 points (man, did they implode down the stretch). In all, its nice when your opponent takes on negative points.
Okay, to fill out this post, I've decided to take a look back at my inital post-draft analysis thoughts from August:
-Barber and Wayne in Rounds 1 and 2. Top of the draft, take the best available. I think these are pretty solid picks. Looking at the guys taken in Rounds 1 and 2, I don't think I could have done much better given where I was picking (at #10 and #19).
Still agree with this assessment. Barber was a stud until he got hurt late in the year. Wayne was solid overall, but he had a long stretch in the middle of the season where he was terrible (and yet, I still managed to win those weeks).
-Palmer and Garrard in Rounds 3 and 8. Homer pick? A little, but it makes it easier on Sundays since I'm going to rooting for him and the Bengals anyway. And I think I have a more than capable backup in David Garrard. I like Garrard. I got him last year at about the same time in the draft and he ended up being my starter most of the season. Hopefully Carson has a great year and I don't have to use Garrard. If not, I think I'm still okay at QB.
Ouch. But in my defense, you can never anticipate a guy suffering a serious injury at the beginning of the year (hello, Tom Brady). And even though he had a slow start to the season, I was right on Garrard- he had a solid year. But even with that, there was no way I could have predicted how my starting QB's would play out. Once it was clear Palmer wasn't an option, I managed with J.T. O'Sullivan for a few weeks, then Garrard once he started playing well, before finally settling on Tyler Thigpen to finish out the year and lead me through the playoffs. Regardless of who's coaching in Kansas City next year, I think Thigpen is the guy for them, and i think that's a good thing for the Chiefs.
-Graham in Round 4. Graham had a quietly solid year last year. Hopefully he can do the same this year.
And he did, for half a season until he got hurt.
-Coles and Bowe in Rounds 5 and 6. Two things I'm hoping for here. One, I hope that Coles gets over his man-crush of Chad Pennington and realizes that Brett Favre, while old, is still better than Pennington ever was. And two, I hope they find someone in Kansas City who can get the ball to Bowe. If those things happen, I think these guys could have pretty good years.
One for two here. Favre started out great, but was soon showing his age and all Pennington did was lead the formerly 1-15 Dolphins to the AFC East title and the playoffs. Oops. Coles was a total bust this year- 1 great game (when I had him on the bench), 3 good games (exluding Week 17, which doesn't count for anything), and the rest of the time he was terrible. As for Bowe, they did find someone to get him the ball (see: Thigpen, Tyler).
-McAllister in Round 7. I was targeting Felix Jones here to have the Barber/Jones backfield combo, and he was available at the start of the round, but was taken 6 picks before I could get him. So since I had my backfield duo broken up, I took McAllister to break up someone else's Saints backfield combo.
McAllister gave me nothing and Jones eventually got hurt, so this was a lost pick either way.
-Crumpler in Round 9. He's best years were when he had Michael Vick at QB. Here's hoping he can put up comparable numbers now that he's with a comparable QB in Vince Young.
Yeah, not so much. I had a rough time with TE this year, juggling guys like Crumpler, Bo Scaife, John Carlson, Kevin Boss, and Zach Miller. Odd that the guy who plays for the Raiders (Miller) would end up being the most consistent (no touchdowns, but 50-70 yards a week; if he could find the end zone just once in a while he'd be a real good option at TE).
-Johnson in Round 10. I think every fantasy football publication has Chris Johnson listed as a potential "sleeper pick" this year. I don't know about that, but Round 10 seemed like a good place to take a chance.
Best pick of my draft. Tenth round, #131 overall, and he's the #10 fantasy running back, even with LenDale White vulturing some of his touchdowns. I'll take it.
-Patriots defense in Round 12. Too soon for a defense? Probably. I was actually looking at taking a shot at DeSean Jackson here (matching him with Johnson as "potential rookie sleepers"), but I thought there might be a run on defenses (because my league can be weird like that) and that I could wait on Jackson until the next round. Wrong and wrong. I could have easily gotten the Pats D (or a comparable one) later on and DeSean Jackson was taken six picks later. Oh well.
Uh, too much time devoted to thinking about defenses. The Pats were decent for the beginning of the year, but I also used the Falcons and the Jets to fill my D/ST slot. DeSean Jackson would've been a good pick, but I have the feeling that he would've spent a lot of time on my bench.
-Jackson, Battle, Bush, and Sweed in Rounds 11, 13, 14, and 15. Just looking to fill out the roster with skill position guys. I think Limas Sweed will end up being a pretty good receiver in the NFL. I thought that Sweed would have been a good second round pick for the Bengals in this year's draft (hell, DeSean Jackson would've been good, too). Instead, they took Jerome Simpson from Coastal Carolina, had every wideout on the roster get hurt, and then resigned Chris Henry. Well done, Mike Brown, well done.
All meaningless picks except for Vincent Jackson in Round 11. I dumped the other guys pretty quickly, but for whatever reason, I held only Jackson. Great choice. He didn't start coming alive until about Week 6, and as I was looking for someone to fill my RB/WR flex slot, he became Philip Rivers's favorite deep threat and he started putting up solid fantasy numbers.
-Tynes in Round 16. Okay, big mistake here. I didn't know that Tynes was coming off of exploratory knee surgery (I don't do much scouting on kickers). So I'm going to drop him and pick up Matt Stover (ie- the Ravens main offensive weapon) on Friday when the waiver wire opens. Actually, I was looking at Rob Bironas here (was solid for me last year, including the 8 field goal game), but he was taken 2 picks before me. Oh well- its just a kicker.
Stover was an okay pick, but in the end, I ended up using a tandem of Jason Elam (finished the year tied for #3 fantasy kicker) and Matt Prater (#14 kicker). And Bironas would've been a good pick- he finished the year at #2 (behind Stephen Gostkowski).
So in the end, I apparently made just enough right moves to sneak into the playoffs and eventually make a run to the championship. And even though I won, I'm still certain the curse of this blog still exists. I mean, the opposite of what I write here usually comes true, so by expecting failure, I somehow managed a reverse jinx on my own fantasy team. Crazy, I know, but you can't argue the facts. Its been a great year, but now I'm sad that football is going to be ending soon. Guess its time to start getting stoked on college basketball!
Showing posts with label fantasy football failure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy football failure. Show all posts
Monday, December 29, 2008
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 16
Well, well, well, look who made it to his fantasy championship game. Thanks to solid days from Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Faulk, all my wideouts, and an improbable late fumble return for a touchdown by the Jets defense (thank you, J.P. Losman!), I prevailed over the #1 seed Down The Drain 101-85 to advance to this week's championship game.
For the championship, I face off against the #2 seed Team Dreher, who I beat 99-82 way back in Week 2. That week, I survived a massive week from Anquan Boldin (32 fantasy points!) with big days from Marion Barber and Earnest Graham (and solid days from Chris Johnson and Reggie Wayne). I'll probably need another week like that (or like last week) to beat Dreher for a second time.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Chad Pennington
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Marshawn Lynch
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Thomas Jones
RB/WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Warrick Dunn
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Anquan Boldin
WR: Dwyane Bowe vs. Devin Hester
TE: Zach Miller vs. Dallas Clark
D/ST: Jets vs. Buccaneers
K: Jason Elam vs. Nate Kaeding
QB: David Garrard's been great that past few weeks, but I've riden Tyler Thigpen this far, so I've got to stay with him. Miami's not that great against the pass, so I expect Thipgen to get his usual 15-18 fantasy points. And speaking of Miami, Chad Pennington could have a decent day as well, seeing that Kansas City is even worse than Miami against the pass. But I expect the 'Fins to run the ball against KC with Brown and Williams, and the Chiefs to counter through the air with Bowe and Gonzalez, so I like Thigpen in this matchup.
RB: First off, eventhough he's got a g]touch matchup against Pittsburgh, I can't not start Chris Johnson. He's been too good all year to sit him down now. He stays in, and while I don't expect a whole lot of yards, I think he will manage to find the endzone. Kevin Faulk also stays in because I'm still not sure about the Marion Barber/Tashard Choice situation. Faulk's been solid 3 of the past 4 weeks, combining rushing and passing yards to score in the double digits. Arizona doesn't play much defense, so Faulk's got some value as a receiver. As for the Cowboys, I just don't know right now. Barber was active last week, but didn't do anything, and Choice came in and had his second straight huge game. That's two great games against two great defenses (the Steelers and the Giants). Does he keep it going against another great D, Baltimore? Regardless, I won't have Barber in there, but does Choice merit a start over Faulk? I don't know, and the Cowboys play Saturday night, so I've got less time to think about it. As for Dreher's RB's, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Jones should have their usual solid games. I'm less worried about Warrick Dunn, but Lynch and Jones are a strong backfield that will be tough to keep pace with. I'll need some big games from my guys.
WR/TE: So Reggie Wayne didn't find the endzone last week (and he came so close), but he did break a 100 yards receiving, so I won't bench him. Yet. I am tempted to take a flyer on Laveraneus Coles this week because Seattle is dead last against the pass, but I just can't do it. The Colts need a win tonight to secure a spot in the playoffs, and Marvin Harrison is out, so I expect a lot of balls to go Reggie Wayne's way. Of course, those balls could also go to Dallas Clark, which would be bad, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen. As I said earlier, I'm sticking with Thigpen, which means I'm sticking with Dwayne Bowe; just find the endzone once and I'll be happy. Vincent Jackson's been a nice surprise the past 2 weeks, and its clear that Philip Rivers is looking for him with the deep ball. Eighty yards and a TD isn't out of the question. On the other side, Devin Hester doesn't scare me, but Anquan Boldin does. Sure, he's been down the past 3 weeks (4, 6, and 1 fantasy points), but despite that, he's still the #4 overall fantasy wideout. I've already mentioned Clarks potential for another good game with Harrison out tonight. Hopefully, its not too good so Zach Miller's 6 catches for 70 yards will be able to keep pace (man, I'd love for Miller to find the endzone this week....).
DEF/K: The Jets D had no business scoring 16 fantasy points last week. Thankfully, the Bills are terrible and decided to move J.P. Losman out of the pocket to throw with less than 2 minutes on the clock instead of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who'd gone for over 120 yards at that point. A sack, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown; that's a 9 points defensive fantasy play. Hopefully this week Seneca Wallace remembers that he's Seneca Wallace and not Peyton Manning and throws a few picks (perhaps even one for a TD). Aside from the debacle against Carolina two weeks ago, the Bucs D is always solid. And I don't expect either kicker to score much more than 7-8 points.
So what are my chances to win the championship? I'd say that right now, I'm the underdog, with a 35%-40% chance of pulling the upset. I've got a solid team, but I think Dreher's team's a little bit better. I think it comes down to the running backs, I need big days from them. Chris Johnson against the Steelers and either Faulk or Choice at the other RB slot. If those guys score big (or at least if they just find the endzone), I think I can pull out the championship.
For the championship, I face off against the #2 seed Team Dreher, who I beat 99-82 way back in Week 2. That week, I survived a massive week from Anquan Boldin (32 fantasy points!) with big days from Marion Barber and Earnest Graham (and solid days from Chris Johnson and Reggie Wayne). I'll probably need another week like that (or like last week) to beat Dreher for a second time.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Chad Pennington
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Marshawn Lynch
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Thomas Jones
RB/WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Warrick Dunn
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Anquan Boldin
WR: Dwyane Bowe vs. Devin Hester
TE: Zach Miller vs. Dallas Clark
D/ST: Jets vs. Buccaneers
K: Jason Elam vs. Nate Kaeding
QB: David Garrard's been great that past few weeks, but I've riden Tyler Thigpen this far, so I've got to stay with him. Miami's not that great against the pass, so I expect Thipgen to get his usual 15-18 fantasy points. And speaking of Miami, Chad Pennington could have a decent day as well, seeing that Kansas City is even worse than Miami against the pass. But I expect the 'Fins to run the ball against KC with Brown and Williams, and the Chiefs to counter through the air with Bowe and Gonzalez, so I like Thigpen in this matchup.
RB: First off, eventhough he's got a g]touch matchup against Pittsburgh, I can't not start Chris Johnson. He's been too good all year to sit him down now. He stays in, and while I don't expect a whole lot of yards, I think he will manage to find the endzone. Kevin Faulk also stays in because I'm still not sure about the Marion Barber/Tashard Choice situation. Faulk's been solid 3 of the past 4 weeks, combining rushing and passing yards to score in the double digits. Arizona doesn't play much defense, so Faulk's got some value as a receiver. As for the Cowboys, I just don't know right now. Barber was active last week, but didn't do anything, and Choice came in and had his second straight huge game. That's two great games against two great defenses (the Steelers and the Giants). Does he keep it going against another great D, Baltimore? Regardless, I won't have Barber in there, but does Choice merit a start over Faulk? I don't know, and the Cowboys play Saturday night, so I've got less time to think about it. As for Dreher's RB's, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Jones should have their usual solid games. I'm less worried about Warrick Dunn, but Lynch and Jones are a strong backfield that will be tough to keep pace with. I'll need some big games from my guys.
WR/TE: So Reggie Wayne didn't find the endzone last week (and he came so close), but he did break a 100 yards receiving, so I won't bench him. Yet. I am tempted to take a flyer on Laveraneus Coles this week because Seattle is dead last against the pass, but I just can't do it. The Colts need a win tonight to secure a spot in the playoffs, and Marvin Harrison is out, so I expect a lot of balls to go Reggie Wayne's way. Of course, those balls could also go to Dallas Clark, which would be bad, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen. As I said earlier, I'm sticking with Thigpen, which means I'm sticking with Dwayne Bowe; just find the endzone once and I'll be happy. Vincent Jackson's been a nice surprise the past 2 weeks, and its clear that Philip Rivers is looking for him with the deep ball. Eighty yards and a TD isn't out of the question. On the other side, Devin Hester doesn't scare me, but Anquan Boldin does. Sure, he's been down the past 3 weeks (4, 6, and 1 fantasy points), but despite that, he's still the #4 overall fantasy wideout. I've already mentioned Clarks potential for another good game with Harrison out tonight. Hopefully, its not too good so Zach Miller's 6 catches for 70 yards will be able to keep pace (man, I'd love for Miller to find the endzone this week....).
DEF/K: The Jets D had no business scoring 16 fantasy points last week. Thankfully, the Bills are terrible and decided to move J.P. Losman out of the pocket to throw with less than 2 minutes on the clock instead of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who'd gone for over 120 yards at that point. A sack, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown; that's a 9 points defensive fantasy play. Hopefully this week Seneca Wallace remembers that he's Seneca Wallace and not Peyton Manning and throws a few picks (perhaps even one for a TD). Aside from the debacle against Carolina two weeks ago, the Bucs D is always solid. And I don't expect either kicker to score much more than 7-8 points.
So what are my chances to win the championship? I'd say that right now, I'm the underdog, with a 35%-40% chance of pulling the upset. I've got a solid team, but I think Dreher's team's a little bit better. I think it comes down to the running backs, I need big days from them. Chris Johnson against the Steelers and either Faulk or Choice at the other RB slot. If those guys score big (or at least if they just find the endzone), I think I can pull out the championship.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 15
And he lives to fight another day.
Despite the best efforts of Vincent Jackson (20 points sitting on my bench) and Laveranues Coles (second straight 0 point week), I managed to prevail over Eh!Steve 68-58, returning the favor from last year when he knocked me out of the playoffs (it also helped that Eh!Steve left Jonathan Stewart and his 23 fantasy points on the bench). So onward to the semi-finals, where I matchup against the #1 seed Down The Drain, a team I lost to 74-82 back in Week 4 (where I left 63 points among 3 players on my bench- good times!). Loizeaux's team's pretty solid, so this should be a tough week.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Kerry Collins
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Adrian Peterson
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Ronnie Brown
RB/WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Maurice Jones-Drew
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Greg Jennings
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Steve Smith
TE: Zach Miller vs. Greg Olsen
D/ST: Jets vs. Colts
K: Jason Elam vs. Neil Rackers
QB: Desipte Tennessee's 12-1 record, Collins hasn't exactly been lighting up the fantasy scoreboard. Sure, he's had a few weeks with some good numbers, but he's an 8 to 10 fantasy points guy. Tennessee's a running team (hello Chris Johnson!), so I think Thigpen can outscore Collins here. San Diego has a miserable pass defense, so think Thigpen will have good day (he just needs to find Dwayne Bowe).
RB: I've got issues here. Adrian Peterson (arguably the best running back in the league), Ronnie Brown (not scoring 5 TD each week, but solid none the less), and MJD (the top receiving RB in the league) is a hell of a lineup. I'm going to need another huge week from Chris Johnson (and when I don't I need that?) to keep pace. And as for Kevin Faulk... well, what I need is for Marion Barber to play and play pissed because Jerry Jones had the stones to call out his toughness (that's Marion Barber, of the "Marion the Barbarian" nickname). If he can't go, I picked up Tashard Choice, who had a fine week (15 points) starting in place of Barber going against the tough Steelers defense. Barber's a game time decision. Problem is, game time is 8:15, so I'm going to limited in my moves. Luckly, the Pats play at 4:15, so I'll have a little more time to decide to replace Faulk or not.
WR/TE: Where have you gone, Reggie Wayne? One double-digit fantasy point week in the past eight? You have Detroit this week. Detroit, of the 0-13 record. At least 70 yards and a TD or I'm never owning Reggie Wayne again. I've already mentioned Kansas City's passing game against San Diego's bad pass defense; Dwayne Bowe, time to step up big. Thigpen really only looks for two guys- Bowe and Tony Gonzalez; hopefully he looks for Bowe in the red zone. Despite his widely inconsistent year, I've got Vincent Jackson in there over Coles because, frankly, Coles sucks. Since his 4 TD game back in Week 4 (when I had him on the bench), he's scored only twice more, so no more Coles for the rest of the year. Greg Jennings is a solid receiver, and it looks like Aaron Rodgers is looking to him more than Donald Driver. And Steve Smith is Steve Smith- he's going to get a ton of yards regardless if he finds the end zone or not. As for the TE's, while Zach Miller has only found the end zone once this year (hey, he plays for Oakland), he has been getting good yardage lately (50-60 yards), and I expect that to continue (though a TD would be nice as well). As for the other side, Olsen did manage to find the end zone last week, but that was coming off of back to back 0 point weeks, which is more of what I expect him to put up.
DEF/K: Just no negative points, that all I'm asking for now from my DEF. The Jets have seemingly decided that they don't want to be an elite team anymore, but they've got Buffalo at home this week, so its time to get healthy. It looks like J.P. Losman should get his second straight start for the Bills, which means plenty of opportunites for interceptions for the Jets secondary. And I'll need it since Loizeaux's got the Colts DEF against the hapless Lions. As for the kickers, while Jason Elam's been solid the past few weeks, Neil Rackers has been on fire. He's been in double digits 5 of the past 6 weeks, which is crazy for a kicker. Man, I'd hate to lose because my opponent's kicker went off on a career day. That would just suck.
So where do I think I stand? Honestly, I think it comes down to my RB's. I don't have a lot of faith in Kevin Faulk or Tashard Choice, so I really, really need Marion Barber to play and have monster game. Loizeaux's finished the year at #1 for a reason, so it'll be tough to beat him. Got a shot, but not feeling all the confident.
Despite the best efforts of Vincent Jackson (20 points sitting on my bench) and Laveranues Coles (second straight 0 point week), I managed to prevail over Eh!Steve 68-58, returning the favor from last year when he knocked me out of the playoffs (it also helped that Eh!Steve left Jonathan Stewart and his 23 fantasy points on the bench). So onward to the semi-finals, where I matchup against the #1 seed Down The Drain, a team I lost to 74-82 back in Week 4 (where I left 63 points among 3 players on my bench- good times!). Loizeaux's team's pretty solid, so this should be a tough week.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Kerry Collins
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Adrian Peterson
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Ronnie Brown
RB/WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Maurice Jones-Drew
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Greg Jennings
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Steve Smith
TE: Zach Miller vs. Greg Olsen
D/ST: Jets vs. Colts
K: Jason Elam vs. Neil Rackers
QB: Desipte Tennessee's 12-1 record, Collins hasn't exactly been lighting up the fantasy scoreboard. Sure, he's had a few weeks with some good numbers, but he's an 8 to 10 fantasy points guy. Tennessee's a running team (hello Chris Johnson!), so I think Thigpen can outscore Collins here. San Diego has a miserable pass defense, so think Thigpen will have good day (he just needs to find Dwayne Bowe).
RB: I've got issues here. Adrian Peterson (arguably the best running back in the league), Ronnie Brown (not scoring 5 TD each week, but solid none the less), and MJD (the top receiving RB in the league) is a hell of a lineup. I'm going to need another huge week from Chris Johnson (and when I don't I need that?) to keep pace. And as for Kevin Faulk... well, what I need is for Marion Barber to play and play pissed because Jerry Jones had the stones to call out his toughness (that's Marion Barber, of the "Marion the Barbarian" nickname). If he can't go, I picked up Tashard Choice, who had a fine week (15 points) starting in place of Barber going against the tough Steelers defense. Barber's a game time decision. Problem is, game time is 8:15, so I'm going to limited in my moves. Luckly, the Pats play at 4:15, so I'll have a little more time to decide to replace Faulk or not.
WR/TE: Where have you gone, Reggie Wayne? One double-digit fantasy point week in the past eight? You have Detroit this week. Detroit, of the 0-13 record. At least 70 yards and a TD or I'm never owning Reggie Wayne again. I've already mentioned Kansas City's passing game against San Diego's bad pass defense; Dwayne Bowe, time to step up big. Thigpen really only looks for two guys- Bowe and Tony Gonzalez; hopefully he looks for Bowe in the red zone. Despite his widely inconsistent year, I've got Vincent Jackson in there over Coles because, frankly, Coles sucks. Since his 4 TD game back in Week 4 (when I had him on the bench), he's scored only twice more, so no more Coles for the rest of the year. Greg Jennings is a solid receiver, and it looks like Aaron Rodgers is looking to him more than Donald Driver. And Steve Smith is Steve Smith- he's going to get a ton of yards regardless if he finds the end zone or not. As for the TE's, while Zach Miller has only found the end zone once this year (hey, he plays for Oakland), he has been getting good yardage lately (50-60 yards), and I expect that to continue (though a TD would be nice as well). As for the other side, Olsen did manage to find the end zone last week, but that was coming off of back to back 0 point weeks, which is more of what I expect him to put up.
DEF/K: Just no negative points, that all I'm asking for now from my DEF. The Jets have seemingly decided that they don't want to be an elite team anymore, but they've got Buffalo at home this week, so its time to get healthy. It looks like J.P. Losman should get his second straight start for the Bills, which means plenty of opportunites for interceptions for the Jets secondary. And I'll need it since Loizeaux's got the Colts DEF against the hapless Lions. As for the kickers, while Jason Elam's been solid the past few weeks, Neil Rackers has been on fire. He's been in double digits 5 of the past 6 weeks, which is crazy for a kicker. Man, I'd hate to lose because my opponent's kicker went off on a career day. That would just suck.
So where do I think I stand? Honestly, I think it comes down to my RB's. I don't have a lot of faith in Kevin Faulk or Tashard Choice, so I really, really need Marion Barber to play and have monster game. Loizeaux's finished the year at #1 for a reason, so it'll be tough to beat him. Got a shot, but not feeling all the confident.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 14
[Note: I forgot about the Thursday night game, so this post is going up a bit late.]
Nothing like backing into the playoffs. The week started off great with Chris Johnson putting up 24 fantasy points on Thanksgiving Day, but 0's from Laveranues Coles and Vincent Jackson and a whopping -2 from the Jets D lead me to a 57-78 loss to Smouther's Galveston Storm team (it also didn't help that the rest of my team sucked it up as well). But eventhough I've dropped the last two weeks, I still finished in a 4-way tie for second at 9-4, but I'm seeded 5th in the playoffs thanks to my rather low total points scored number.
Round 1 of the playoffs pits me against Team Rekant (Eh!Steve's team) in a rematch of Week 5 (in which I prevailed 71-54). And I've already got one player locked in (who's playing tonight).
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Drew Brees
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Clinton Portis
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Fred Taylor
RB/WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Kevin Smith
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Braylon Edwards
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Davone Bess
TE: Zach Miller vs. Bo Scaife
D/ST: Jets vs. Packers
K: Jason Elam vs. John Kasay
QB: This is pretty simply- Tyler Thigpen is a servicable (at best) NFL quarterback and Drew Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record. Thigpen had been on a roll, with 17+ fantasy points in each of the past 5 weeks, but he dropped an 8 point stinker last week. Interestingly enough, the Chiefs won last week when Thigpen played poorly and they had lost the previous 5 weeks when we played well. So here's hoping the Chiefs lose this week and Thigpen can at least hit double digits, because I'm sure Brees will put up good numbers.
RB: Marion Barber is currently listed as "questionable" which is why he's on the bench right now. He's playing the Steelers, which is a touch matchup to begin with, but the report right now is that he'll be a game time decision. If it looks like he's going to play, there's no way I can keep him on the bench, even against Pittsburgh. I'd probably put him in the flex spot and leave Kevin Faulk in there, simply because the Pats are playing the Seahawks. And Chris Johnson should have another great week playing Cleveland. Portis is a stud back, but he's also listed as "questionable." Hopefully, he can't go. Taylor's been surpassed by MJD, so I'm not real worried about him, and Kevin Smith's problem is that he plays for Detroit. I need points from my RB's.
WR/TE: As I write this, Vincent Jackson already has 18 points, and he's on my bench. Great start. And my TE, Zach Miller, has 2 points right now, and all I can hope for is that he finds the end zone tonight. All my receivers (starting and on the bench) totalled a massive 6 points last week- if that happens again, my season's over. My best hope is that Wayne goes off big against my hometown Bengals this week. I expect nothing out of Braylon Edwards because the Browns are on their 8th or 9th quarterback this week. Davone Bess scares me a bit, and hopefully Coles and Bowe will return to form and score some points (any points).
DEF/K: I have no idea what happened to the Jets last week. They've got San Francisco this week, so maybe they'll remember that they're supposed one of the top teams in the AFC and not suck. They should at least be able to match the Pack this week, who have Houston. Elam's had 3 straight weeks of 9 fantasy points, so I need that to continue (which is sad that I need a kicker to produce).
So I've already got 18 points in the bench, which isn't a good sign for the week. I'm not feeling all that confident about moving on in the playoffs, and if I don't, it'll be the second straight year in which Eh!Steve has ended my season. If my WR's show up even a little, I think I've got a chance to win. If not, season's over.
Nothing like backing into the playoffs. The week started off great with Chris Johnson putting up 24 fantasy points on Thanksgiving Day, but 0's from Laveranues Coles and Vincent Jackson and a whopping -2 from the Jets D lead me to a 57-78 loss to Smouther's Galveston Storm team (it also didn't help that the rest of my team sucked it up as well). But eventhough I've dropped the last two weeks, I still finished in a 4-way tie for second at 9-4, but I'm seeded 5th in the playoffs thanks to my rather low total points scored number.
Round 1 of the playoffs pits me against Team Rekant (Eh!Steve's team) in a rematch of Week 5 (in which I prevailed 71-54). And I've already got one player locked in (who's playing tonight).
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Drew Brees
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Clinton Portis
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Fred Taylor
RB/WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Kevin Smith
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Braylon Edwards
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Davone Bess
TE: Zach Miller vs. Bo Scaife
D/ST: Jets vs. Packers
K: Jason Elam vs. John Kasay
QB: This is pretty simply- Tyler Thigpen is a servicable (at best) NFL quarterback and Drew Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record. Thigpen had been on a roll, with 17+ fantasy points in each of the past 5 weeks, but he dropped an 8 point stinker last week. Interestingly enough, the Chiefs won last week when Thigpen played poorly and they had lost the previous 5 weeks when we played well. So here's hoping the Chiefs lose this week and Thigpen can at least hit double digits, because I'm sure Brees will put up good numbers.
RB: Marion Barber is currently listed as "questionable" which is why he's on the bench right now. He's playing the Steelers, which is a touch matchup to begin with, but the report right now is that he'll be a game time decision. If it looks like he's going to play, there's no way I can keep him on the bench, even against Pittsburgh. I'd probably put him in the flex spot and leave Kevin Faulk in there, simply because the Pats are playing the Seahawks. And Chris Johnson should have another great week playing Cleveland. Portis is a stud back, but he's also listed as "questionable." Hopefully, he can't go. Taylor's been surpassed by MJD, so I'm not real worried about him, and Kevin Smith's problem is that he plays for Detroit. I need points from my RB's.
WR/TE: As I write this, Vincent Jackson already has 18 points, and he's on my bench. Great start. And my TE, Zach Miller, has 2 points right now, and all I can hope for is that he finds the end zone tonight. All my receivers (starting and on the bench) totalled a massive 6 points last week- if that happens again, my season's over. My best hope is that Wayne goes off big against my hometown Bengals this week. I expect nothing out of Braylon Edwards because the Browns are on their 8th or 9th quarterback this week. Davone Bess scares me a bit, and hopefully Coles and Bowe will return to form and score some points (any points).
DEF/K: I have no idea what happened to the Jets last week. They've got San Francisco this week, so maybe they'll remember that they're supposed one of the top teams in the AFC and not suck. They should at least be able to match the Pack this week, who have Houston. Elam's had 3 straight weeks of 9 fantasy points, so I need that to continue (which is sad that I need a kicker to produce).
So I've already got 18 points in the bench, which isn't a good sign for the week. I'm not feeling all that confident about moving on in the playoffs, and if I don't, it'll be the second straight year in which Eh!Steve has ended my season. If my WR's show up even a little, I think I've got a chance to win. If not, season's over.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 13
Stupid Randy Moss.
Randy Moss is an elite receiver, everyone knows this. I don't care who's throwing to him (unless its an Oakland QB), if he's a part of the offense, there's always a chance for him to have a big day. But 125 yards and 3 touchdowns? You never expect a day THAT big. You never expect it and you can't count on it, you just have to accept it and move on.
Moss's stupid 30 fantasy point week helped Belgiumland Waffles pull the upset and end my winning streak at 7. So I go from sole possession of 1st place to a 3-way tie for 1st at 9-3 (with me in 3rd based on points scored). And it doesn't get any easier this week going up against Smouther's Galveston Storm team, who's 8-4and second in the league in points scored.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Jay Cutler
RB: Marion Barber vs. Joseph Addai
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Michael Turner
RB/WR: Laveraneus Coles vs. Andre Johnson
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Kevin Walter
TE: Kevin Boss vs. Dustin Keller
D/ST: Jets vs. Raiders
K: Jason Elam vs. Matt Bryant
QB: Despite the Chiefs not getting any wins when he starts, Tyler Thigpen continues to put up good fantasy numbers. And if he'd stop throwing the late game interception (after the game's outcome has been decided), he'd have even better numbers. He's playing Oakland which should hopefully boost his numbers this week. Although, Oakland just shut down Devner and gave Jay Cutler his lowest point total of the year. Devner's offense is completely 1-dimensional, so while that means defenses can just pin their ears back and play the pass, it also means that Cutler's throwing the ball 40+ times a game and has lots of chances to score points.
RB: Chris Johnson's been terrible lately, but both him and Marion Barber have favorable matchups this week (Johnson vs. Detroit and Barber vs. Seattle). If you can't get healthy against the winless Lions on Thanksgiving day, coming off your first lose of the year, you've got issues. Barber's also going on Thanksgiving, so I'm expecting big games from these guys to set the tone for the rest of the weekend. Both Addai and Turner are more than solid backs, with Turner coming off a 4 touchdown game (take that, Randy Moss!). That's not happening again this week, though he and Addai will surely both find the endzone. I'm hoping the more favorable matchups will give my guys the edge here.
WR/TE: I just need Brett Favre to find Laveraneous Coles in the red zone, that's it. Its clear that he's not getting as many of balls his way as the Jets move down the field; those yards are going to Cotchery and Keller (more on him later) and Thomas Jones on the ground. And that's fine, as long as he gets the TD at the end. The Browns are terrible, so I expect Peyton Manning will have a big day, which usually means that Reggie Wayne will also have a big day. And as for Dwayne Bowe, I'm a little worried about him. While Oakland sucks, they've got this cat in their secondary, Nnamdi Asomugha, that's the very definition of "shut down corner." Teams don't even throw to his side of the field, and there's no doubt that he'll be on Bowe all game. This doesn't bode well for me, but I can't bench Bowe; he's too good of a player, and there's still a chance he gets an opening in the red zone and vultures a TD. Smother's relying on the Texans combo of Johnson and Walter, which isn't that bad of a play. Their problem is that they've got Sage Rosenfels throwing them the ball, which isn't doing them any favors. Same goes for Lee Evans; he's only doing as well as Trent Edwards is doing, which usually isn't very good. But Dustin Keller scares me a bit. I've gone back to Kevin Boss in the hopes of vulturing some TD's, but Favre is looking for Keller every time he drops back. While he hasn't been getting the TD's, he is getting the yards, which, for at TE in fantasy, can sometimes be just as good.
DEF/K: Not much to say here other than my D is playing his QB, and his D is playing my QB. Funny how that works out. And Elam should get more chances to score than Bryant this week. And if not, they're still just kickers.
So, this could be another loss. I've got the edge at RB, but he's got me at QB, WR (only slightly), and TE. This is the final week of the regular season and I'm going to make the playoffs (top 6 advance), but I don't want to limp into the post season. Going from 1st to 6th in two weeks wouldn't be good. But Smouther's got a strong team and getting a win will be tough. I think I take the close loss and drop and finish the regular season 9-4. Sucks, but as the Patsys (and my own fantasy team) taught us last year, the regular season means nothing. Its all the post season. Bring it on.
Randy Moss is an elite receiver, everyone knows this. I don't care who's throwing to him (unless its an Oakland QB), if he's a part of the offense, there's always a chance for him to have a big day. But 125 yards and 3 touchdowns? You never expect a day THAT big. You never expect it and you can't count on it, you just have to accept it and move on.
Moss's stupid 30 fantasy point week helped Belgiumland Waffles pull the upset and end my winning streak at 7. So I go from sole possession of 1st place to a 3-way tie for 1st at 9-3 (with me in 3rd based on points scored). And it doesn't get any easier this week going up against Smouther's Galveston Storm team, who's 8-4and second in the league in points scored.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Jay Cutler
RB: Marion Barber vs. Joseph Addai
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Michael Turner
RB/WR: Laveraneus Coles vs. Andre Johnson
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Lee Evans
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Kevin Walter
TE: Kevin Boss vs. Dustin Keller
D/ST: Jets vs. Raiders
K: Jason Elam vs. Matt Bryant
QB: Despite the Chiefs not getting any wins when he starts, Tyler Thigpen continues to put up good fantasy numbers. And if he'd stop throwing the late game interception (after the game's outcome has been decided), he'd have even better numbers. He's playing Oakland which should hopefully boost his numbers this week. Although, Oakland just shut down Devner and gave Jay Cutler his lowest point total of the year. Devner's offense is completely 1-dimensional, so while that means defenses can just pin their ears back and play the pass, it also means that Cutler's throwing the ball 40+ times a game and has lots of chances to score points.
RB: Chris Johnson's been terrible lately, but both him and Marion Barber have favorable matchups this week (Johnson vs. Detroit and Barber vs. Seattle). If you can't get healthy against the winless Lions on Thanksgiving day, coming off your first lose of the year, you've got issues. Barber's also going on Thanksgiving, so I'm expecting big games from these guys to set the tone for the rest of the weekend. Both Addai and Turner are more than solid backs, with Turner coming off a 4 touchdown game (take that, Randy Moss!). That's not happening again this week, though he and Addai will surely both find the endzone. I'm hoping the more favorable matchups will give my guys the edge here.
WR/TE: I just need Brett Favre to find Laveraneous Coles in the red zone, that's it. Its clear that he's not getting as many of balls his way as the Jets move down the field; those yards are going to Cotchery and Keller (more on him later) and Thomas Jones on the ground. And that's fine, as long as he gets the TD at the end. The Browns are terrible, so I expect Peyton Manning will have a big day, which usually means that Reggie Wayne will also have a big day. And as for Dwayne Bowe, I'm a little worried about him. While Oakland sucks, they've got this cat in their secondary, Nnamdi Asomugha, that's the very definition of "shut down corner." Teams don't even throw to his side of the field, and there's no doubt that he'll be on Bowe all game. This doesn't bode well for me, but I can't bench Bowe; he's too good of a player, and there's still a chance he gets an opening in the red zone and vultures a TD. Smother's relying on the Texans combo of Johnson and Walter, which isn't that bad of a play. Their problem is that they've got Sage Rosenfels throwing them the ball, which isn't doing them any favors. Same goes for Lee Evans; he's only doing as well as Trent Edwards is doing, which usually isn't very good. But Dustin Keller scares me a bit. I've gone back to Kevin Boss in the hopes of vulturing some TD's, but Favre is looking for Keller every time he drops back. While he hasn't been getting the TD's, he is getting the yards, which, for at TE in fantasy, can sometimes be just as good.
DEF/K: Not much to say here other than my D is playing his QB, and his D is playing my QB. Funny how that works out. And Elam should get more chances to score than Bryant this week. And if not, they're still just kickers.
So, this could be another loss. I've got the edge at RB, but he's got me at QB, WR (only slightly), and TE. This is the final week of the regular season and I'm going to make the playoffs (top 6 advance), but I don't want to limp into the post season. Going from 1st to 6th in two weeks wouldn't be good. But Smouther's got a strong team and getting a win will be tough. I think I take the close loss and drop and finish the regular season 9-4. Sucks, but as the Patsys (and my own fantasy team) taught us last year, the regular season means nothing. Its all the post season. Bring it on.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 12
How do I keep winning? I have 2 guys that put up zeros last week, and I still manage to eke out the win 89-83 over Tina's Eli's Coming team. Marion Barber returned to being Marion Barber, and Chris Johnson, while he didn't find the end zone, still put up some decent yardage. And Thigpen-Bowe hookup I needed? Happened twice. Love it, hope it keeps on happening.
So I'm now at 9-2, riding a 7 game win streak, and alone in first place (thank you Smouther, for beating Loizeaux). This week I'm up against the league's foreign correspondent, Rob, a.ka. Belgiumland Waffles.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Jason Campbell
RB: Marion Barber vs. Larry Johnson
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Tim Hightower
RB/WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Donnie Avery
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Randy Moss
WR: Dwyane Bowe vs. Brandon Marshall
TE: Zach Miller vs. Antonio Gates
D/ST: Jets vs. Patriots
K: Matt Prater vs. Rob Bironas
QB: Thigpen's scored 19+ fantasy points each of the past 4 weeks; if he continues that streak, I'll be happy. He seems to have something going on with Dwyane Bowe, so while the Chiefs aren't winning many games (though I like them this week against Buffalo), they're still putting up good fantasy numbers. Campbell's been okay this year, but he's playing Seattle, so there's the chance he puts up big numbers. But I have faith in Tyler Thigpen.
RB: San Francisco's terrible, so Marion Barber should be poised for another big game. Chris Johnson's up against the Jets D, which isn't the easist team to run on, but I'm hoping he get at least one touchdown, either running or receiving. Larry Johnson's done nothing this year, but he's also probably good for at least one TD against Buffalo (just as long as it comes a Thigpen pass). And I don't expect anything out of Tim Hightower. He was flash in the a pan and unless he scores a long run, he's not getting the goalline carries (those are going to J.J. Arrington, who's currently residing on my bench and could end up in the flex slot).
WR/TE: San Diego has no pass defense, so, like Marion Barber, I expect a big game from Reggie Wayne. It looks like he and Peyton Manning are back on track, so that means lots of yards and lots of scores. I've already mentioned Dwyane Bowe; I'm loving him and Thigpen, and that should continue at home against the Bills. And I've got Coles in the flex slot because, well... I don't know why. Since he's huge 3 TD game back in Week 4 (when I had him on the bench), he's only scored 1 more TD (back in Week 8). There's always that chance that Favre will find him in the end zone, but that just hasn't been happening; Favre's been throwing too many picks and the Jets offense is going through Thomas Jones and the running game. So I'm pretty certain I'll be benching Coles in favor of J.J. Arrington (as mentioned above), but that'll be a gameday decision. Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall will most certainly put up numbers comperable to Wayne and Bowe, so that's a wash. But I expect nothing from Donnie Avery simply because he plays for the Rams. He had a couple good games earlier in the year, but not much since, so no worries. I've come to accept that whoever I start at TE will garner me 0 points, so anything positive I take as a win. And besides, whoever I throw out there won't be able to match Antonio Gates anyway, so its pretty much just a coin flip.
DEF/K: I need the Jets to intercept Kerry Collins mulitple times and record a dozen sacks, but let Chris Johson get two scores; that would be ideal. And Rob doens't have a DEF in play right now, but he just dropped the Browns D for the Pats, so I imagine he'll make the change before kickoff Sunday. I've got Prater back at K because the Broncos are playing the Raiders, so there should be ample scoring opportunities, both PAT's and field goals. And Bironas should get a lot of work because the reality is, Jets-Titans will most likely be a defensive battle with few touchdowns and a lot more field goal tries.
In summary, I think I get the win over Beglium (yes, the entire country), run the win streak to 8 games, and remain in first place. I have to admit, this season is playing out very similar to last season, and that's not a good thing for me. Last year, I finished with the best record (12-2) and the most points scored, but I got bounced in the playoffs when none of my guys player a whole lot in the final weeks of the season. So I'm hoping for a slightly different result this year.
So I'm now at 9-2, riding a 7 game win streak, and alone in first place (thank you Smouther, for beating Loizeaux). This week I'm up against the league's foreign correspondent, Rob, a.ka. Belgiumland Waffles.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Jason Campbell
RB: Marion Barber vs. Larry Johnson
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Tim Hightower
RB/WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Donnie Avery
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Randy Moss
WR: Dwyane Bowe vs. Brandon Marshall
TE: Zach Miller vs. Antonio Gates
D/ST: Jets vs. Patriots
K: Matt Prater vs. Rob Bironas
QB: Thigpen's scored 19+ fantasy points each of the past 4 weeks; if he continues that streak, I'll be happy. He seems to have something going on with Dwyane Bowe, so while the Chiefs aren't winning many games (though I like them this week against Buffalo), they're still putting up good fantasy numbers. Campbell's been okay this year, but he's playing Seattle, so there's the chance he puts up big numbers. But I have faith in Tyler Thigpen.
RB: San Francisco's terrible, so Marion Barber should be poised for another big game. Chris Johnson's up against the Jets D, which isn't the easist team to run on, but I'm hoping he get at least one touchdown, either running or receiving. Larry Johnson's done nothing this year, but he's also probably good for at least one TD against Buffalo (just as long as it comes a Thigpen pass). And I don't expect anything out of Tim Hightower. He was flash in the a pan and unless he scores a long run, he's not getting the goalline carries (those are going to J.J. Arrington, who's currently residing on my bench and could end up in the flex slot).
WR/TE: San Diego has no pass defense, so, like Marion Barber, I expect a big game from Reggie Wayne. It looks like he and Peyton Manning are back on track, so that means lots of yards and lots of scores. I've already mentioned Dwyane Bowe; I'm loving him and Thigpen, and that should continue at home against the Bills. And I've got Coles in the flex slot because, well... I don't know why. Since he's huge 3 TD game back in Week 4 (when I had him on the bench), he's only scored 1 more TD (back in Week 8). There's always that chance that Favre will find him in the end zone, but that just hasn't been happening; Favre's been throwing too many picks and the Jets offense is going through Thomas Jones and the running game. So I'm pretty certain I'll be benching Coles in favor of J.J. Arrington (as mentioned above), but that'll be a gameday decision. Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall will most certainly put up numbers comperable to Wayne and Bowe, so that's a wash. But I expect nothing from Donnie Avery simply because he plays for the Rams. He had a couple good games earlier in the year, but not much since, so no worries. I've come to accept that whoever I start at TE will garner me 0 points, so anything positive I take as a win. And besides, whoever I throw out there won't be able to match Antonio Gates anyway, so its pretty much just a coin flip.
DEF/K: I need the Jets to intercept Kerry Collins mulitple times and record a dozen sacks, but let Chris Johson get two scores; that would be ideal. And Rob doens't have a DEF in play right now, but he just dropped the Browns D for the Pats, so I imagine he'll make the change before kickoff Sunday. I've got Prater back at K because the Broncos are playing the Raiders, so there should be ample scoring opportunities, both PAT's and field goals. And Bironas should get a lot of work because the reality is, Jets-Titans will most likely be a defensive battle with few touchdowns and a lot more field goal tries.
In summary, I think I get the win over Beglium (yes, the entire country), run the win streak to 8 games, and remain in first place. I have to admit, this season is playing out very similar to last season, and that's not a good thing for me. Last year, I finished with the best record (12-2) and the most points scored, but I got bounced in the playoffs when none of my guys player a whole lot in the final weeks of the season. So I'm hoping for a slightly different result this year.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 11
Another sad week for my RB's- Chris Johnson and Kevin Faulk combined for a grand total of 1 point. Thankfully, the Jets D played St. Louis and scored 25 points to pick up the slack. Ralph had two guys put up 0 points and I still only won the week 83-70, which was considerably closer than I had imagined. Willis McGahee went from "questionable" to having a monster game, which was unexpected. But David Garrard had a decent game (18 points) and so did Reggie Wayne, again (17 points), which was good to see.
Down The Drain won big last week, so we're still tied for first at 8-2, but the "points scored" gap has increased to 839-783 (note: I'm 7th in "points scored" but I have the fewest "points against" at 600). Week 11 brings a serious challenge in Tina's 6-4 Eli's Coming team.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Kurt Warner
RB: Marion Barber vs. Brandon Jacobs
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Matt Forte
RB/WR: Earnest Graham vs. Anthony Gonzales
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Kevin Curtis
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Marvin Harrison
TE: Kevin Boss vs. Jason Witten
D/ST: Jets vs. Eagles
K: Jason Elam vs. John Carney
QB: I've made another change at QB; I'm going with Tyler Thigpen. Yes, Tyler Thigpen. Look, I love David Garrard, but I think Thigpen's the better play this week. Garrard is up against undefeated Tennessee and Thigpen, who's had 20+ fantasy points the past 3 weeks, is up against underachieving New Orleans. I think Thigpen gives me the best chance for point, which I'm going to need against MVP candidate Kurt Warner. Warner's having a John Travoltta in Pulp Fiction type comeback right now, and its mind boggling. He's at Seattle, which shouldn't be too hard for him to put up big numbers. I hope I can keep it close here.
RB: My RB's have been pretty disappointing lately. What I need is for Tony freakin'-Romo to come back and start throwing the ball downfield to establish that yes, the Cowboys having a passing game once more. If this happens, the field should open up for Marion Barber to be Marion Barber again. Also, I don't think the Titan's running game will be shut down again like it was last week, so Chris Johnson should be okay. Earnest Graham is currently "questionable" with a knee injury, so if it turns out he can't go, I'll have Vincent Jackson in at the flex position. Its pretty rare for me to be the underdog at RB, but I am to Tina. Barber and Johnson are currently the #8 and #9 fantasy RB's; Matt Forte and Brandon Jacobs are #3 and #7. Tina's guys have been more consistant than mine, so I don't expect either Forte or Jacobs to have an off week.
WR/TE: First off, welcome back Reggie Wayne. Three straight crappy weeks and I thought about benching Wayne; good think I didn't. I'm going with Dwayne Bowe over Laveranues Coles this week because a)I'm already riding the Tyler Thigpen bandwagon and b)tonight's Jets-Pats game is forcasted to be a rainly slop-fest. Besides, Coles has had only one good week in the past 5, so I'm feeling okay sitting him. And as long as Peyton Manning throws to Wayne and not to Anthony Gonzalez or Marvin Harrison, I should be okay here. Harrison is struggling big time right now, but he's still Marvin Harrison, so he could break out at any point, and Gonzalez is still the 4th option in that offense (behind Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Harrison), so I don't expect much from these guys. The Eagles have the Bengals this week, so I expect Kevin Curtis (along with the rest of the Eagles) to find the end zone at least once each. At TE, I picked up Kevin Boss because he's got a TD in 3 straight games, so hopefully Eli Manning wil continue to look his way in the red zone. Tina's got Jason Witten, who should be back to his usual self after a bye week and the return of Romo.
DEF/K: Like I mentioned above, the weather for tonight's Jets-Pats game is expected to be nasty. Nasty weather usually favors the defense (unless you're playing Gale Sayers), so I'm hoping for some decent points from the Jets D (though I surely don't expect another 25 point performance). Again, the Eagles are at Cincinnati, so they're sure to put up some fantasy points. And all I'll say about kickers is that Jason Elam (who scored a solid 10 points last week) is currently "questionable", so if he can't go, I'll drop Matt Prater (who's fallen off lately as the Broncos offense has faded).
On paper, I think I'm behind in this matchup and unlike the past three weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if my win streak (up to 6 right now) comes to an end. I think it'll come down to the RB's; if my guys (all of them, not just one) show and play to the level they're supposed to, I'll be in a good position to get the win (a few TD's from Thigpen to Bowe wouldn't hurt either). But we'll see, this week should be close.
Down The Drain won big last week, so we're still tied for first at 8-2, but the "points scored" gap has increased to 839-783 (note: I'm 7th in "points scored" but I have the fewest "points against" at 600). Week 11 brings a serious challenge in Tina's 6-4 Eli's Coming team.
QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Kurt Warner
RB: Marion Barber vs. Brandon Jacobs
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Matt Forte
RB/WR: Earnest Graham vs. Anthony Gonzales
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Kevin Curtis
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Marvin Harrison
TE: Kevin Boss vs. Jason Witten
D/ST: Jets vs. Eagles
K: Jason Elam vs. John Carney
QB: I've made another change at QB; I'm going with Tyler Thigpen. Yes, Tyler Thigpen. Look, I love David Garrard, but I think Thigpen's the better play this week. Garrard is up against undefeated Tennessee and Thigpen, who's had 20+ fantasy points the past 3 weeks, is up against underachieving New Orleans. I think Thigpen gives me the best chance for point, which I'm going to need against MVP candidate Kurt Warner. Warner's having a John Travoltta in Pulp Fiction type comeback right now, and its mind boggling. He's at Seattle, which shouldn't be too hard for him to put up big numbers. I hope I can keep it close here.
RB: My RB's have been pretty disappointing lately. What I need is for Tony freakin'-Romo to come back and start throwing the ball downfield to establish that yes, the Cowboys having a passing game once more. If this happens, the field should open up for Marion Barber to be Marion Barber again. Also, I don't think the Titan's running game will be shut down again like it was last week, so Chris Johnson should be okay. Earnest Graham is currently "questionable" with a knee injury, so if it turns out he can't go, I'll have Vincent Jackson in at the flex position. Its pretty rare for me to be the underdog at RB, but I am to Tina. Barber and Johnson are currently the #8 and #9 fantasy RB's; Matt Forte and Brandon Jacobs are #3 and #7. Tina's guys have been more consistant than mine, so I don't expect either Forte or Jacobs to have an off week.
WR/TE: First off, welcome back Reggie Wayne. Three straight crappy weeks and I thought about benching Wayne; good think I didn't. I'm going with Dwayne Bowe over Laveranues Coles this week because a)I'm already riding the Tyler Thigpen bandwagon and b)tonight's Jets-Pats game is forcasted to be a rainly slop-fest. Besides, Coles has had only one good week in the past 5, so I'm feeling okay sitting him. And as long as Peyton Manning throws to Wayne and not to Anthony Gonzalez or Marvin Harrison, I should be okay here. Harrison is struggling big time right now, but he's still Marvin Harrison, so he could break out at any point, and Gonzalez is still the 4th option in that offense (behind Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Harrison), so I don't expect much from these guys. The Eagles have the Bengals this week, so I expect Kevin Curtis (along with the rest of the Eagles) to find the end zone at least once each. At TE, I picked up Kevin Boss because he's got a TD in 3 straight games, so hopefully Eli Manning wil continue to look his way in the red zone. Tina's got Jason Witten, who should be back to his usual self after a bye week and the return of Romo.
DEF/K: Like I mentioned above, the weather for tonight's Jets-Pats game is expected to be nasty. Nasty weather usually favors the defense (unless you're playing Gale Sayers), so I'm hoping for some decent points from the Jets D (though I surely don't expect another 25 point performance). Again, the Eagles are at Cincinnati, so they're sure to put up some fantasy points. And all I'll say about kickers is that Jason Elam (who scored a solid 10 points last week) is currently "questionable", so if he can't go, I'll drop Matt Prater (who's fallen off lately as the Broncos offense has faded).
On paper, I think I'm behind in this matchup and unlike the past three weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if my win streak (up to 6 right now) comes to an end. I think it'll come down to the RB's; if my guys (all of them, not just one) show and play to the level they're supposed to, I'll be in a good position to get the win (a few TD's from Thigpen to Bowe wouldn't hurt either). But we'll see, this week should be close.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 10
In my Week 9 match up, you're name had to be "C. Johnson" if you wanted to score any points. On my team, I had Chris Johnson, who went for 89 yards rushing with a touchdown and 72 yards receiving (21 points). Rebec had Chad Johnson, who only had 39 yards receiving, but had 2 touchdowns (15 points). No one else on either of our teams made it into double digits. Thankfully, my team still did consderable better than her's did; aside from Chad, her other 6 skill position players totaled 5 points, meaning Chris Johnson alone beat 7 of her players. After that, its not too hard to pull out the win. Final score for the week, 61-34.
I got the win and stayed in a tie for first place (with Down The Drain, at 7-2), but my relatively low-scoring week put me behind in total points scored, 723-700. Week 10 sees me up against Ralph's team (man, when was the last time we call him "Ralph"? 2000?), Beall Blockers. It appears that Ralph is another guy in our league that hasn't been paying much (if any) attention to his team.
QB: David Garrard vs. Derek Anderson
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Steven Jackson
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Willis McGahee
RB/WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. LenDale White
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Plaxico Burress
WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Hines Ward
TE: Zack Miller vs. Jeremey Shockey
D/ST: Jets vs. Titans
K: Jason Elam vs. Phil Dawson
QB: Sign #1 that Ralph may not be paying attention to his fantasy team- Derek Anderson is no longer a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Brady Quinn Era begins tonight in the Armpit of Ohio (otherwise known as Cleveland), so unless Quinn pull a Greg Oden and gets hurt in his first start, Anderson should register all of zero points. Eventhough there's no competition at this posision this wee, I still hope David Garrard can do better this week against the winles Lions than he did last week against the then-winless Bengals (we got a win, go us) because I need the point to overtake Loizeaux's Down The Drain team.
RB: Both Steven Jackson and Willis McGahee are listed as "questionable" this week, so who knows what to expect from them. Neither guy played last week, and while it looks like McGahee is good to go, there's no way he a)get the start over or b)gets more touches than Ray Rice. Jackson said he was ready last week and ended up being out at the last minute, so he's probably a game time again this week. So I don't know what to expect fantasy wise from these guys, but I'd bet it isn't much. On the other hand, I know exactly what to expect from LenDale White- he'll be stealing Chris Johnson's touchdowns. White has filled the void left by Mike Allstott's retirement as the league's top "touchdown vulture." Chris Johnson gets the yards, White gets the goalline carries. At least Johnson also gets a fair share of receiveing yards, so there's more opportunity for him to find the end zone.
WR/TE: Burress and Ward, I bet both go for 50 to 60 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. Not spectacular, not terrible. In fact, I think those will be the number for my receivers as well, Bowe, Wayne, and Coles. I'm actually up in the are about my receivers, especially Reggie Wayne, which is kind of shocking. He should be the best, most consistent of my receivers, but the Colts (and Peyton Manning) are struggling, and Wayne's numbers have suffered. I've got Vincent Jackson on the bench (who pretty much goes for 50 yards every week, and has a 50/50 chance of scoring a touchdown as well), so I may end up subing out Wayne for Jackson. I'll make the final decision Sunday morning. As for TE's, Shcckey's still working his way back from injury and Miller, in the Raiders pathetic office, will probably once again score 0 points.
DEF/K: I've made changes here, not that it matter much. I picked up the Jets D, hoping they can score some points against the still-kind-of-hapless Rams, but I'm up against the Titans D, which is the second highest scoring fantasy D in the league (and probably the best "actual" D). I've also decided to go back to Elam as my kicker because it looks like the Falcons offense is giving him more opportunities than the Denver offense was giving Matt Prater.
With Derek Anderson's zero points tonight to start off the football weekend, my hope is that Ralph also gets nothing (or next to nothing) from Steven Jackson, McGahee, and Shockey, thus leaving only 5 player that I have to worry about beating. Because of that, I am cautiously optimisitic about a sixth straight win and staying in first place.
I got the win and stayed in a tie for first place (with Down The Drain, at 7-2), but my relatively low-scoring week put me behind in total points scored, 723-700. Week 10 sees me up against Ralph's team (man, when was the last time we call him "Ralph"? 2000?), Beall Blockers. It appears that Ralph is another guy in our league that hasn't been paying much (if any) attention to his team.
QB: David Garrard vs. Derek Anderson
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Steven Jackson
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Willis McGahee
RB/WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. LenDale White
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Plaxico Burress
WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Hines Ward
TE: Zack Miller vs. Jeremey Shockey
D/ST: Jets vs. Titans
K: Jason Elam vs. Phil Dawson
QB: Sign #1 that Ralph may not be paying attention to his fantasy team- Derek Anderson is no longer a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Brady Quinn Era begins tonight in the Armpit of Ohio (otherwise known as Cleveland), so unless Quinn pull a Greg Oden and gets hurt in his first start, Anderson should register all of zero points. Eventhough there's no competition at this posision this wee, I still hope David Garrard can do better this week against the winles Lions than he did last week against the then-winless Bengals (we got a win, go us) because I need the point to overtake Loizeaux's Down The Drain team.
RB: Both Steven Jackson and Willis McGahee are listed as "questionable" this week, so who knows what to expect from them. Neither guy played last week, and while it looks like McGahee is good to go, there's no way he a)get the start over or b)gets more touches than Ray Rice. Jackson said he was ready last week and ended up being out at the last minute, so he's probably a game time again this week. So I don't know what to expect fantasy wise from these guys, but I'd bet it isn't much. On the other hand, I know exactly what to expect from LenDale White- he'll be stealing Chris Johnson's touchdowns. White has filled the void left by Mike Allstott's retirement as the league's top "touchdown vulture." Chris Johnson gets the yards, White gets the goalline carries. At least Johnson also gets a fair share of receiveing yards, so there's more opportunity for him to find the end zone.
WR/TE: Burress and Ward, I bet both go for 50 to 60 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. Not spectacular, not terrible. In fact, I think those will be the number for my receivers as well, Bowe, Wayne, and Coles. I'm actually up in the are about my receivers, especially Reggie Wayne, which is kind of shocking. He should be the best, most consistent of my receivers, but the Colts (and Peyton Manning) are struggling, and Wayne's numbers have suffered. I've got Vincent Jackson on the bench (who pretty much goes for 50 yards every week, and has a 50/50 chance of scoring a touchdown as well), so I may end up subing out Wayne for Jackson. I'll make the final decision Sunday morning. As for TE's, Shcckey's still working his way back from injury and Miller, in the Raiders pathetic office, will probably once again score 0 points.
DEF/K: I've made changes here, not that it matter much. I picked up the Jets D, hoping they can score some points against the still-kind-of-hapless Rams, but I'm up against the Titans D, which is the second highest scoring fantasy D in the league (and probably the best "actual" D). I've also decided to go back to Elam as my kicker because it looks like the Falcons offense is giving him more opportunities than the Denver offense was giving Matt Prater.
With Derek Anderson's zero points tonight to start off the football weekend, my hope is that Ralph also gets nothing (or next to nothing) from Steven Jackson, McGahee, and Shockey, thus leaving only 5 player that I have to worry about beating. Because of that, I am cautiously optimisitic about a sixth straight win and staying in first place.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 9
I should know better by now. Really. I mean, with the track record of this blog, why would I ever assume anything is a given? Take Week 8- I was up against Team Williams and his mere 4 starting players. Sure, those players were LT, Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, and the Raven's D, but that's only 4 guys; how can I not beat 4 guys? Well, I almost found out.
Chaz's 4-man team put up 49 points, which, while fairly impressive for only 4 players, should be easily beatable with a full team. Or so you'd think. At days end Sunday, with 2 players going on Monday night, I was down 42-49. I needed Reggie Wayne and Chris Johnson to combine for at least 8 points in order to win the week. Easy, right? No so much. Reggie Wayne didn't get me jack, and until Chris Johnson's TD at the end of the game, he was barely at 6 or 7 fantasy points. But in the end, I managed to eke out a 58-49 win, and, with my boy E taking out Down The Drain, I'm tied for first at 6-2 (first based on total points scored, where I lead Down The Drain 639 to 638).
Riding a 4 game winning streak, I now face off against Team Louie, the only girl in our league. And despite what you may think about chicks playing fantasy football, Rebec's got a decent team. And luckly for me, a number of her better players are on a bye this week.
QB: David Garrard vs. Matt Schaub
RB: Marion Barber vs. Kevin Jones
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Dominic Rhodes
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Hank Baskett
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Chad Johnson
WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Santana Moss
TE: Zach Miller vs. Heath Miller
D/ST: Patriots vs. Cowboys
K: Matt Prater vs. Jeff Reed
QB: Now that Mike Singletary's running the show in San Francisco, it means that J.T. O'Sullivan's going to be seeing a lot of the bench (and the 49er's are on the bye this week). Thankfully, David Garrard is finally starting to play like David Garrard. And going up against my hapless Bengals this week, I expet a big game out of him. On the flip side, Matt Schaub has been on fire recently. Sure, he padded his stats by playing the aforementioned hapless Bengals last week, but big numbers are big numbers. With Andre Johnson showing that he's one of the top 5 recievers in the league (possibly higher than that), I also expect Schaub to score big this week. My hope is that Garrard can sneak in a rushing TD or two and give himself an edge that way (though you never underestimate Matt "The White Michael Vick" Schaub near the goalline; man, I wish I still had that button).
RB: I don't expect too much out of Barber this week going against the Giants, but with Brad Johnson's total fail at QB right now, the Cowboys don't have many options. Barber should at least get a TD somewhere in there. Same goes for Chris Johnson. LenDale White still gets the goalline carries, but Johnson gets the yards and will also get a TD at some point during the game. I am hoping for a big game from Earnest Graham simply because he's playing Kansas City, and opportunities like that don't come along often. Rebec's got Kevin Jones and Dominic Rhodes in because Frank Gore and DeAngelo Williams are both on byes. While I expect Rhodes to be okay (even if Joseph Addai is back in there), I expect nothing from Kevin Jones. So I feel pretty good in the RB department.
WR/TE: Reggie Wayne's been sucking it up recently, so he might get benched on Sunday in favor of Dwayne Bowe. He's listes as "questionable" right now anyway, but I suspect he'll find a way to play against the Patriots. Coles is listed a "probable", but I'm sure he'll play. If Favre can find a way to throw the ball to guys in Jets jerseys as opposed to the other team's, Coles should have an okay day. Santana Moss should have an okay day, too, but I don't expect Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco to do anything because Ryan Fitzpatrick has been as much of a fail as Brad Johnson's been.
The battle of the Miller TE's should be a push, though I'd give Heath the edge because he's playing with a better QB on a better team.
DEF/K: The Pats are playing at Indy and the Cowboys are playing at the Giants; there shouldn't be a lot of points scored in the defensive side of the ball. And kickers are kickers, so, whatever. As long as I don't get negative points here, I'll be happy.
I feel pretty good about a geting fifth straight win this week. Down The Drain is looking pretty good this week too, so I need to keep pace. Onward to 7-2!
Chaz's 4-man team put up 49 points, which, while fairly impressive for only 4 players, should be easily beatable with a full team. Or so you'd think. At days end Sunday, with 2 players going on Monday night, I was down 42-49. I needed Reggie Wayne and Chris Johnson to combine for at least 8 points in order to win the week. Easy, right? No so much. Reggie Wayne didn't get me jack, and until Chris Johnson's TD at the end of the game, he was barely at 6 or 7 fantasy points. But in the end, I managed to eke out a 58-49 win, and, with my boy E taking out Down The Drain, I'm tied for first at 6-2 (first based on total points scored, where I lead Down The Drain 639 to 638).
Riding a 4 game winning streak, I now face off against Team Louie, the only girl in our league. And despite what you may think about chicks playing fantasy football, Rebec's got a decent team. And luckly for me, a number of her better players are on a bye this week.
QB: David Garrard vs. Matt Schaub
RB: Marion Barber vs. Kevin Jones
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Dominic Rhodes
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Hank Baskett
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Chad Johnson
WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Santana Moss
TE: Zach Miller vs. Heath Miller
D/ST: Patriots vs. Cowboys
K: Matt Prater vs. Jeff Reed
QB: Now that Mike Singletary's running the show in San Francisco, it means that J.T. O'Sullivan's going to be seeing a lot of the bench (and the 49er's are on the bye this week). Thankfully, David Garrard is finally starting to play like David Garrard. And going up against my hapless Bengals this week, I expet a big game out of him. On the flip side, Matt Schaub has been on fire recently. Sure, he padded his stats by playing the aforementioned hapless Bengals last week, but big numbers are big numbers. With Andre Johnson showing that he's one of the top 5 recievers in the league (possibly higher than that), I also expect Schaub to score big this week. My hope is that Garrard can sneak in a rushing TD or two and give himself an edge that way (though you never underestimate Matt "The White Michael Vick" Schaub near the goalline; man, I wish I still had that button).
RB: I don't expect too much out of Barber this week going against the Giants, but with Brad Johnson's total fail at QB right now, the Cowboys don't have many options. Barber should at least get a TD somewhere in there. Same goes for Chris Johnson. LenDale White still gets the goalline carries, but Johnson gets the yards and will also get a TD at some point during the game. I am hoping for a big game from Earnest Graham simply because he's playing Kansas City, and opportunities like that don't come along often. Rebec's got Kevin Jones and Dominic Rhodes in because Frank Gore and DeAngelo Williams are both on byes. While I expect Rhodes to be okay (even if Joseph Addai is back in there), I expect nothing from Kevin Jones. So I feel pretty good in the RB department.
WR/TE: Reggie Wayne's been sucking it up recently, so he might get benched on Sunday in favor of Dwayne Bowe. He's listes as "questionable" right now anyway, but I suspect he'll find a way to play against the Patriots. Coles is listed a "probable", but I'm sure he'll play. If Favre can find a way to throw the ball to guys in Jets jerseys as opposed to the other team's, Coles should have an okay day. Santana Moss should have an okay day, too, but I don't expect Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco to do anything because Ryan Fitzpatrick has been as much of a fail as Brad Johnson's been.
The battle of the Miller TE's should be a push, though I'd give Heath the edge because he's playing with a better QB on a better team.
DEF/K: The Pats are playing at Indy and the Cowboys are playing at the Giants; there shouldn't be a lot of points scored in the defensive side of the ball. And kickers are kickers, so, whatever. As long as I don't get negative points here, I'll be happy.
I feel pretty good about a geting fifth straight win this week. Down The Drain is looking pretty good this week too, so I need to keep pace. Onward to 7-2!
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 8
I have to admit, I like the direction my fantasy team is going right now. After Week 6's 100-59 blowout of Paulson's team, I took out E's team last week 97-59. It was the same song, different verse. Most of my guys found the end zone and most of E's guys didn't. He got huge games from Calvin Johnson (23 points) and the Giants D (15), but I matched those numbers with Chris Johnson (22) and the Patriots D (17). The thing is, I also had Marion Barber (15), Earnest Graham (12), and Vincent Jackson (13) and E had nothing (including two guys that scored 0 points).
So after back-to-back strong weeks, I'm 5-2 and along in second place (still trailing Down The Drain at 6-1), looking to go to 6-2 after a win this week. Am I a little over confident (so much so that I don't even feel there's a need to post any analysis? Sure, but but if I can't get a win this week, I really should just quit. Here's why- I'm playing Team Williams, who's manager, Chaz, doesn't appear to have done anything with his team since the draft. Need proof? Here's Chaz's starting lineup that's he's played the last 4 weeks:
QB: [empty]
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson
RB: Selvin Young
RB/WR: Isaac Bruce
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Donald Driver
TE: Tony Scheffler
D/ST: Ravens
K: Mason Crosley
Now, he's recievers aren't that bad, and while LT may be struggling a bit this year, he's still LT and could go off for 20+ fantasy points any given week, so he don't have the worst team in the world. But no QB for 4 (going on 5) straight weeks? That's a problem. Also a problem? Four of his guys (Young, Driver, Scheffler, and Crosley) are on byes this week. So to get the win, I only have to bet LT, Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, and the Ravens D. I think I can get that done. I'm not worried (though history tells me I probably should be), and I'll be 6-2. Now I just need E's team to step up and beat Down The Drain this week for me so I can move into a tie for first. You're family, E; you need to come through.
So after back-to-back strong weeks, I'm 5-2 and along in second place (still trailing Down The Drain at 6-1), looking to go to 6-2 after a win this week. Am I a little over confident (so much so that I don't even feel there's a need to post any analysis? Sure, but but if I can't get a win this week, I really should just quit. Here's why- I'm playing Team Williams, who's manager, Chaz, doesn't appear to have done anything with his team since the draft. Need proof? Here's Chaz's starting lineup that's he's played the last 4 weeks:
QB: [empty]
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson
RB: Selvin Young
RB/WR: Isaac Bruce
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Donald Driver
TE: Tony Scheffler
D/ST: Ravens
K: Mason Crosley
Now, he's recievers aren't that bad, and while LT may be struggling a bit this year, he's still LT and could go off for 20+ fantasy points any given week, so he don't have the worst team in the world. But no QB for 4 (going on 5) straight weeks? That's a problem. Also a problem? Four of his guys (Young, Driver, Scheffler, and Crosley) are on byes this week. So to get the win, I only have to bet LT, Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, and the Ravens D. I think I can get that done. I'm not worried (though history tells me I probably should be), and I'll be 6-2. Now I just need E's team to step up and beat Down The Drain this week for me so I can move into a tie for first. You're family, E; you need to come through.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 7
As has been made evident by this blog, I'm terrible at predicting the outcome of my fantasy football league. I thought last week's match up against Sons of Paul would be a close one because my guys hadn't been playing well recently and a lot of his guys were in favorable match ups. As it turned out, I won in a blowout 100-59 (my three top scorers Marion Barber, Reggie Wayne, and Vincent Jackson put up 58 on their own). Simply put, my guys found the end zone and Paulson's guys didn't (well, Marvin Harrison did, but Paulson had him on the bench... not that those 20 points would have helped him anyway).
So I'm now 4-2 and in a 5-way tie for second (4th overall by points scored). But previously undefeated Down The Drain lost, so I'm only 1 game back in the standings. This week, I'm playing my buddy E's team, Kwijybo's Killer Clowns (2-4).
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Brett Favre
RB: Marion Barber vs. Jamal Lewis
RB: Earnest Graham vs. T.J. Duckett
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Brandon Stokely
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Calvin Johnson
WR: Vincent Jackson vs. DeSean Jackson
TE: Zach Miller vs. Chris Cooley
D/ST: Patriots vs. Giants
K: Matt Prater vs. Nick Folk
QB: With Garrard on a bye and Palmer injured (he's got a roster spot why?), it's back to Mr. Regional-Family-Style-Sit-Down-Restaurant-Chain to QB my team. Not that it matters too much, since E's got Favre and Favre's playing the Raiders. I expect big numbers from Favre (which makes me think I should put Coles back into my lineup...). With O'Sullivan playing the Giants (E's D/ST), I just need him to not throw interceptions so he doesn't simultaneously take points from me and give points to E.
RB: With Romo out and Brad Johnson it, I tend to think that the Cowboys will run the ball a bit more. And with Felix Jones out, that means plenty of carries for Marion Barber. His rushing numbers have been down recently (last week's huge play was a 70-yard TD pass), but I expect that to improve. Chris Johnson is coming off a bye vs. hapless Kansas City, so I expect a good game from him. And while Earnest Graham is still splitting carries (and now potentially playing a little fullback), he got a goalline carry and a TD last week. And if that's all I get out of him, I'll take it. E's got Jamal Lewis (who's decent) and T.J. Duckett (who's had 1 good game) at RB, so I feel confident I can overcome whatever point difference I have at QB with my RB's.
WR/TE: As I stated before, Reggie Wayne and Vincent Jackson had monster games last week. I expect that out of Wayne; not so much with Jackson. His getting a fair amount of looks from Rivers, and piled up way more yards than I had expected him to. I just want Rivers to look his way in the red zone. E's got DeSean Jackson in his lineup right now, but he's on a bye, so I expect E to make the appropriate roster move (he'll probably move Stokely to the WR spot and put RB Fred Jackson in the flex spot; which still doesn't worry me at the RB position). Stokely's a solid WR choice, but the guy can't even recall how may concussions he's had, which can't be a good thing- he might not even play this week. Calvin Johnson's also coming off a concussion (man, E, what's with your WR's?), but its looking like he's going to play. And his problem isn't his head; its his QB. He can't have a lot of confidence in Dan Orlovsky after watching him run out of bounds for a safety in last week's game. I should be up at WR, which is good because E's got one of the few playmaker TE's in Chris Cooley. Cooley's had a bit of a slow start, but he can bust loose at any time, especially with Clinton Portis running the ball better now.
DEF/K: The Pats are playing Denver and the Giants are playing the 49ers. I expect better numbers from the Giants here. Best case scenario? The Rams give up a lot of TD's to the Cowboys (specifically Barber) and Nick Folk is stuck kicking extra points all day and the Pats D stuffs the Denver offense and the Broncos have to rely on Matt Prater field goals for points. But that's probably not going to happen.
I'm seeing a fairly easy win this week. I'm on a little roll right now and E's back on his heels a bit. If I get the same type of performances I got last week, I should be fine.
So I'm now 4-2 and in a 5-way tie for second (4th overall by points scored). But previously undefeated Down The Drain lost, so I'm only 1 game back in the standings. This week, I'm playing my buddy E's team, Kwijybo's Killer Clowns (2-4).
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Brett Favre
RB: Marion Barber vs. Jamal Lewis
RB: Earnest Graham vs. T.J. Duckett
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Brandon Stokely
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Calvin Johnson
WR: Vincent Jackson vs. DeSean Jackson
TE: Zach Miller vs. Chris Cooley
D/ST: Patriots vs. Giants
K: Matt Prater vs. Nick Folk
QB: With Garrard on a bye and Palmer injured (he's got a roster spot why?), it's back to Mr. Regional-Family-Style-Sit-Down-Restaurant-Chain to QB my team. Not that it matters too much, since E's got Favre and Favre's playing the Raiders. I expect big numbers from Favre (which makes me think I should put Coles back into my lineup...). With O'Sullivan playing the Giants (E's D/ST), I just need him to not throw interceptions so he doesn't simultaneously take points from me and give points to E.
RB: With Romo out and Brad Johnson it, I tend to think that the Cowboys will run the ball a bit more. And with Felix Jones out, that means plenty of carries for Marion Barber. His rushing numbers have been down recently (last week's huge play was a 70-yard TD pass), but I expect that to improve. Chris Johnson is coming off a bye vs. hapless Kansas City, so I expect a good game from him. And while Earnest Graham is still splitting carries (and now potentially playing a little fullback), he got a goalline carry and a TD last week. And if that's all I get out of him, I'll take it. E's got Jamal Lewis (who's decent) and T.J. Duckett (who's had 1 good game) at RB, so I feel confident I can overcome whatever point difference I have at QB with my RB's.
WR/TE: As I stated before, Reggie Wayne and Vincent Jackson had monster games last week. I expect that out of Wayne; not so much with Jackson. His getting a fair amount of looks from Rivers, and piled up way more yards than I had expected him to. I just want Rivers to look his way in the red zone. E's got DeSean Jackson in his lineup right now, but he's on a bye, so I expect E to make the appropriate roster move (he'll probably move Stokely to the WR spot and put RB Fred Jackson in the flex spot; which still doesn't worry me at the RB position). Stokely's a solid WR choice, but the guy can't even recall how may concussions he's had, which can't be a good thing- he might not even play this week. Calvin Johnson's also coming off a concussion (man, E, what's with your WR's?), but its looking like he's going to play. And his problem isn't his head; its his QB. He can't have a lot of confidence in Dan Orlovsky after watching him run out of bounds for a safety in last week's game. I should be up at WR, which is good because E's got one of the few playmaker TE's in Chris Cooley. Cooley's had a bit of a slow start, but he can bust loose at any time, especially with Clinton Portis running the ball better now.
DEF/K: The Pats are playing Denver and the Giants are playing the 49ers. I expect better numbers from the Giants here. Best case scenario? The Rams give up a lot of TD's to the Cowboys (specifically Barber) and Nick Folk is stuck kicking extra points all day and the Pats D stuffs the Denver offense and the Broncos have to rely on Matt Prater field goals for points. But that's probably not going to happen.
I'm seeing a fairly easy win this week. I'm on a little roll right now and E's back on his heels a bit. If I get the same type of performances I got last week, I should be fine.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 6
Where have you gone, Marion Barber? His fantasy totals thus far: 22-23-19-3-8. Just 11 points in the past two weeks and no touchdowns? How does he manage only 8 points against the mighty Bengals of Cincinnati? Inconceivable!
Needless to say, I need Marion Barber to be Marion Barber and put some damn points on the board. I did get the win last week against Team Rekant, 71-54, moving to 3-2 on the year and in a 6-way tie for second (though I'm 5th overall based on total points scored). And I won last week because the only players that showed up for Eh!Steve's team were named Clinton Portis. I got a decent day out of J.T. O'Sullivan (3 touchdowns- good, 3 interceptions- bad) and a good day out of Reggie Wayne (ie- the only non-QB to score a touchdown), and that was pretty much it. Oh, I also got a solid game from my kicker, Matt Prater, but as great as it is to get points from the K position, if you're relying on his points week to week, you've got problems.
On to Week 6. I'm up against Sons of Paul, who, despite being 1-4 and in last place in the league, is favored to win this week based on ESPN.com's projections (which have come to mean just slightly more than nothing in my book). That being said, I think Paulson (Sons of Paul... get it?) has a solid team that I should be worried about.
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan* vs. JaMarcus Russell
RB: Marion Barber vs. Ryan Grant
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Steve Slaton
RB/WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Antwaan Randle El
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Terrell Owens
WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Wes Welker
TE: Zack Miller vs. Owen Daniels
D/ST: Falcons vs. Vikings
K: Matt Prater vs. Ryan Longwell
QB: Okay, the one position where I think I have a clear-cut advantage. Russell's been decent so far this year, but he plays for the Raiders, so that automatically downgrades his upside. O'Sullivan still managed a good week last week despite throwing 3 picks. I'm tempted to put Palmer back in the lineup (the last two games he's played he's posted 17 and 14 points), but he's elbow's still not 100%, so I don't trust him (nor the Bengals offense in general).
[*Edit (4:00 pm): I've decided that O'Sullivan against Philly's sack-happy defense isn't a real good idea. David Garrard versus Denver's "we can't stop anyone but that's okay because our offense can out score you" defense is a better matchup. So Garrard's in and O'Sullivan's on the bench.]
RB: Barber and Graham have had a hard time finding the end zone recently. This needs to change. I expect Barber to pick it up and get back on track (hopefully sooner rather than later). Graham, however, is a mystery. It hurts that he's splitting carries with Warrick Dunn, but he's still able to put up okay fantasy numbers. There's not much on the waiver wire in a 14 team league, so I'm kind of stuck with him. On the other side of the aisle, Paulson's got Ryan Grant and Steve Slaton. Slaton's a beast, easily the second best rookie RB this year (behind Matt Forte). And while Grant's struggled so far, he's got a favorable matchup against Seattle this week, which could help him get healthy.
WR/TE: I'm not excited about these matchups. I expect Wayne to get him numbers, even against Baltimore's D, and hopefully the Coles-Favre hookup didn't cool off over the bye week (and speaking of byes, that's the reason Jackson's in there- I'm not expecting much from him, just no negative points). But Paulson's got Owens (who should get plenty of balls his way, even if he does drop a lot of them), Randle El (who's got an easy matchup against the lowly Rams), and Welker (who should get a lot of looks because it appears the Pats are keeping Cassel to the short, underneath routes, which is where Welker lives). As for the TE's, they don't really matter unless you've got a superstar, which neither of our guys are, so anything I can get out of them is a bonus (though I think Daniels will get more looks from Schaub than Miller will from Russell). I think I'm behind in receivers, so I'll need Coles to go off for 105 and 3 TD like he did two weeks ago when I had him on the bench to have a chance.
DEF/K: I'm starting the Falcons over the Pats because I think Atlanta's got a better chance against the Kyle Orton-led Bears than New England's got against LT and the Chargers. Don't think it much anyway because I'm up against the Vikings versus the Lions, who are the saddest team in all of football (worse than the Bengals and Rams). Guess I'm going to need another big day from Prater kicking field goals and extra points.
I really don't know what's going to happen this week. It could be a blowout or a nail-biter for either team and I wouldn't be surprised. But "push" isn't how I roll, so I'll man up and make a prediction- despite good games from Slaton, Randle El, and Owens, I win in a close one behind huge games from Barber and Coles (and Wayne regular numbers). I go to 4-2 and hopefully move a step closer to 1st place with a loss by Down the Drain (who's currently 5-0).
Needless to say, I need Marion Barber to be Marion Barber and put some damn points on the board. I did get the win last week against Team Rekant, 71-54, moving to 3-2 on the year and in a 6-way tie for second (though I'm 5th overall based on total points scored). And I won last week because the only players that showed up for Eh!Steve's team were named Clinton Portis. I got a decent day out of J.T. O'Sullivan (3 touchdowns- good, 3 interceptions- bad) and a good day out of Reggie Wayne (ie- the only non-QB to score a touchdown), and that was pretty much it. Oh, I also got a solid game from my kicker, Matt Prater, but as great as it is to get points from the K position, if you're relying on his points week to week, you've got problems.
On to Week 6. I'm up against Sons of Paul, who, despite being 1-4 and in last place in the league, is favored to win this week based on ESPN.com's projections (which have come to mean just slightly more than nothing in my book). That being said, I think Paulson (Sons of Paul... get it?) has a solid team that I should be worried about.
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan* vs. JaMarcus Russell
RB: Marion Barber vs. Ryan Grant
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Steve Slaton
RB/WR: Laveranues Coles vs. Antwaan Randle El
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Terrell Owens
WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Wes Welker
TE: Zack Miller vs. Owen Daniels
D/ST: Falcons vs. Vikings
K: Matt Prater vs. Ryan Longwell
QB: Okay, the one position where I think I have a clear-cut advantage. Russell's been decent so far this year, but he plays for the Raiders, so that automatically downgrades his upside. O'Sullivan still managed a good week last week despite throwing 3 picks. I'm tempted to put Palmer back in the lineup (the last two games he's played he's posted 17 and 14 points), but he's elbow's still not 100%, so I don't trust him (nor the Bengals offense in general).
[*Edit (4:00 pm): I've decided that O'Sullivan against Philly's sack-happy defense isn't a real good idea. David Garrard versus Denver's "we can't stop anyone but that's okay because our offense can out score you" defense is a better matchup. So Garrard's in and O'Sullivan's on the bench.]
RB: Barber and Graham have had a hard time finding the end zone recently. This needs to change. I expect Barber to pick it up and get back on track (hopefully sooner rather than later). Graham, however, is a mystery. It hurts that he's splitting carries with Warrick Dunn, but he's still able to put up okay fantasy numbers. There's not much on the waiver wire in a 14 team league, so I'm kind of stuck with him. On the other side of the aisle, Paulson's got Ryan Grant and Steve Slaton. Slaton's a beast, easily the second best rookie RB this year (behind Matt Forte). And while Grant's struggled so far, he's got a favorable matchup against Seattle this week, which could help him get healthy.
WR/TE: I'm not excited about these matchups. I expect Wayne to get him numbers, even against Baltimore's D, and hopefully the Coles-Favre hookup didn't cool off over the bye week (and speaking of byes, that's the reason Jackson's in there- I'm not expecting much from him, just no negative points). But Paulson's got Owens (who should get plenty of balls his way, even if he does drop a lot of them), Randle El (who's got an easy matchup against the lowly Rams), and Welker (who should get a lot of looks because it appears the Pats are keeping Cassel to the short, underneath routes, which is where Welker lives). As for the TE's, they don't really matter unless you've got a superstar, which neither of our guys are, so anything I can get out of them is a bonus (though I think Daniels will get more looks from Schaub than Miller will from Russell). I think I'm behind in receivers, so I'll need Coles to go off for 105 and 3 TD like he did two weeks ago when I had him on the bench to have a chance.
DEF/K: I'm starting the Falcons over the Pats because I think Atlanta's got a better chance against the Kyle Orton-led Bears than New England's got against LT and the Chargers. Don't think it much anyway because I'm up against the Vikings versus the Lions, who are the saddest team in all of football (worse than the Bengals and Rams). Guess I'm going to need another big day from Prater kicking field goals and extra points.
I really don't know what's going to happen this week. It could be a blowout or a nail-biter for either team and I wouldn't be surprised. But "push" isn't how I roll, so I'll man up and make a prediction- despite good games from Slaton, Randle El, and Owens, I win in a close one behind huge games from Barber and Coles (and Wayne regular numbers). I go to 4-2 and hopefully move a step closer to 1st place with a loss by Down the Drain (who's currently 5-0).
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 5
GiantAsianMan vs. Week 4 Opponent (Down The Drain) - 74-82; another loss (though not as bad as I'd predicted)
GiantAsianMan vs. GiantAsianMan's Week 4 bench - 74-63
I left 63 points on the bench (all from 3 guys- David Garrard's 23, Michael Bush's 12, and Laveranues Coles's 26); that would've beaten four teams in my league and tied a fifth this week. And while that's incredibly frustrating, you can't play using hindsight. Garrard had been averaging about 6 points a week as compared to J.T. O'Sullivan's 13; you knew Garrard was going to break out at some point, but until then I'm going to start the guy that's been performing. No one could have predicted that Brett Favre would throw for 6 touchdowns and that 3 of them (along with 105 yards) would go to Laveranues "I miss Chad Pennington, oh wait, not anymore" Coles. Who would've thought that Marion Barber would only get 8 carries and manage a mere 3 points? No one.
So after a fast start to the season, I'm now 2-2 and sitting in 7th place (by total points) in the league. Week 5 has me up against another 2-2 team, Team Rekant (creative name there, Eh!Steve), league commissioner and last year's champion.
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Drew Brees
RB: Marion Barber vs. Clinton Portis
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Jonathan Stewart
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Jerious Norwood
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Santonio Holmes
WR: Robert Meachem vs. Josh Reed
TE: John Carlson vs. L.J. Smith
D/ST: Patriots vs. Packers
K: Matt Prater vs. Josh Scobee
QB: No contest here, Brees should crush O'Sullivan this week. Brees should pick apart Minnesota (one reason that I picked up Robert Meachem at WR this week) and O'Sullivan is up against the Patriots (which puts my fantasy team into slight conflict of interest). Brees is a better QB with more weapons around him, playing against a lesser opponent. If O'Sullivan can get a TD and not throw any picks, I'll be happy.
RB: I really feel that in any given week, I have an edge in the RB department (of course, that's assuming Marion Barber gets more than 8 carries). Eh!Steve's got some decent backs in Portis, Stewart, and Norwood, but I still feel like I should out score them. Norwood's got a favorable matchup against the Pack, but Stewart is still splitting carries for Carolina and Portis has a tough game against the Eagles D. On my side, its Barber vs. the Bengals and Graham vs. the Broncos- both guys should have huge games because those teams can't stop anyone (and it should offset what I expect to be a tough week for Johnson vs. the Ravens).
WR/TE: As I mentioned above, I picked up Robert Meachem of the Saints to replace Dwayne Bowe in my lineup this week. Bowe's a solid receiver, but he plays for a crappy team that limits his fantasy chances. So I decided to take some advice directly from the Talanted Mr. Roto (ESPN's fantasy expert Matthew Berry) and pick up Meachem because the Vikings are susceptible to the deep ball, which is exactly how the Saints are using Meachem in their offense. So we'll see how Mr. Berry's advice turn out this week. I'm not real scared of Eh!Steve's receivers, though I expect Holmes to get a lot of looks this week because the Steelers are on their 19th RB for the year and they'll probably be throwing a lot. As usual, the TE position doesn't matter.
DEF/K: As long as the 49ers don't put Frank Gore into the read-option formation, I expect the Patriots D to score in the positive points this week (just as long as the points don't come from J.T. O'Sullivan interceptions). Eh!Steve's got the Pack, which is one of the higher scoring D's. I also picked up a new K in Matt Prater simply because he's currently the highest scoring fantasy K thus far (and I'm up against Josh Scobee, the second highest scoring fantasy kicker).
In the end, I think I'm cautiously optimistic for a win this week. Solid games from my RB's, no mistakes from my QB, and non-negative points from my D/ST and I should move to 3-2.
GiantAsianMan vs. GiantAsianMan's Week 4 bench - 74-63
I left 63 points on the bench (all from 3 guys- David Garrard's 23, Michael Bush's 12, and Laveranues Coles's 26); that would've beaten four teams in my league and tied a fifth this week. And while that's incredibly frustrating, you can't play using hindsight. Garrard had been averaging about 6 points a week as compared to J.T. O'Sullivan's 13; you knew Garrard was going to break out at some point, but until then I'm going to start the guy that's been performing. No one could have predicted that Brett Favre would throw for 6 touchdowns and that 3 of them (along with 105 yards) would go to Laveranues "I miss Chad Pennington, oh wait, not anymore" Coles. Who would've thought that Marion Barber would only get 8 carries and manage a mere 3 points? No one.
So after a fast start to the season, I'm now 2-2 and sitting in 7th place (by total points) in the league. Week 5 has me up against another 2-2 team, Team Rekant (creative name there, Eh!Steve), league commissioner and last year's champion.
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Drew Brees
RB: Marion Barber vs. Clinton Portis
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Jonathan Stewart
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Jerious Norwood
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Santonio Holmes
WR: Robert Meachem vs. Josh Reed
TE: John Carlson vs. L.J. Smith
D/ST: Patriots vs. Packers
K: Matt Prater vs. Josh Scobee
QB: No contest here, Brees should crush O'Sullivan this week. Brees should pick apart Minnesota (one reason that I picked up Robert Meachem at WR this week) and O'Sullivan is up against the Patriots (which puts my fantasy team into slight conflict of interest). Brees is a better QB with more weapons around him, playing against a lesser opponent. If O'Sullivan can get a TD and not throw any picks, I'll be happy.
RB: I really feel that in any given week, I have an edge in the RB department (of course, that's assuming Marion Barber gets more than 8 carries). Eh!Steve's got some decent backs in Portis, Stewart, and Norwood, but I still feel like I should out score them. Norwood's got a favorable matchup against the Pack, but Stewart is still splitting carries for Carolina and Portis has a tough game against the Eagles D. On my side, its Barber vs. the Bengals and Graham vs. the Broncos- both guys should have huge games because those teams can't stop anyone (and it should offset what I expect to be a tough week for Johnson vs. the Ravens).
WR/TE: As I mentioned above, I picked up Robert Meachem of the Saints to replace Dwayne Bowe in my lineup this week. Bowe's a solid receiver, but he plays for a crappy team that limits his fantasy chances. So I decided to take some advice directly from the Talanted Mr. Roto (ESPN's fantasy expert Matthew Berry) and pick up Meachem because the Vikings are susceptible to the deep ball, which is exactly how the Saints are using Meachem in their offense. So we'll see how Mr. Berry's advice turn out this week. I'm not real scared of Eh!Steve's receivers, though I expect Holmes to get a lot of looks this week because the Steelers are on their 19th RB for the year and they'll probably be throwing a lot. As usual, the TE position doesn't matter.
DEF/K: As long as the 49ers don't put Frank Gore into the read-option formation, I expect the Patriots D to score in the positive points this week (just as long as the points don't come from J.T. O'Sullivan interceptions). Eh!Steve's got the Pack, which is one of the higher scoring D's. I also picked up a new K in Matt Prater simply because he's currently the highest scoring fantasy K thus far (and I'm up against Josh Scobee, the second highest scoring fantasy kicker).
In the end, I think I'm cautiously optimistic for a win this week. Solid games from my RB's, no mistakes from my QB, and non-negative points from my D/ST and I should move to 3-2.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 4
Sports Illustrated. Madden. Campbell's Chunky Soup. This blog.
No denying it, this blog is cursed. Its my blog, and I managed to jinx myself. No other proof is needed.
So after talking smack to Honester Ciphers last week, I lost 68-74. And when you break it down, its all Bill Belichick's fault (and the curse, but one could argue that the curse influenced the Pats D, which is clearly the case). The Patriots D put up a whopping -7 points for me last week. -7 points. I lost by 6 points. If the Pats could have managed 0 points, ZERO points, I would have won 75-74. But no, Belichick couldn't figure out how to stop the read-option. Ronnie Brown scored 5 TD's on the Pats D, 4 rushing, 1 throwing. He ran the read-option as well as Tim Tebow or Chase Daniels; who knew that the franchise QB Miami's been waiting for since the retirement of Dan Marino was Ronnie Brown? Of the 4 rushing TD's, 3 of them came out of the read-option set. In fact, they came off the same play. Direct snap to Brown, play fake to Ricky Williams, Williams runs out wide, Brown goes off tackle, Brown scores. Three times, same play, 3 TD's (and the passing touchdown also came off the read-option set). I thought college offenses weren't supposed to work in the NFL because NFL players were faster and coaches were better at making adjustments. That's apparently not the case in New England. Guess making defensive adjustments is tougher when you can't videotape your opponents signals.
Alright, enough about last week's debacle- onto Week 4, where I'm facing off against Down the Drain, who's currently in first place (he's the only 3-0 team in our league). I've got a lot of guys on the bye week, I'm not feeling good about this match up. When you see the lineups, you'll see why:
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Trent Edwards
RB: Marion Barber vs. Adrian Peterson
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Maurice Jones-Drew
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Rashad Mendenhall*
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Greg Jennings
TE: Jerramy Stevens vs. Alge Crumpler
D/ST: Falcons vs. Bears
K: Jason Elam vs. Kris Brown
*He's got Kevin Faulk in his lineup right now, but the Pats are on a bye, so I suspect he'll sub in Mendenhall off the bench.
QB: Doesn't seem like sexy match up, O'Sullivan vs. Edwards, but these guys are both having pretty good years. Sullivan came through for me last week (one of the few guys that did), and going against New Orleans's D this week, I expect more of the same. Of course, Edwards has the Rams, so he should also put up big numbers. Probably a push here in points.
RB: I like to think I have an edge on most teams in the RB department, but not so much anymore. I mean, Barber's a beast and is going to put up numbers all year. I expect Graham and Johnson to give me good numbers as well, but that didn't really happen last week. Graham gave me nothing, but that's because the Bucs put it 67 times; I don't expect them to do that every week, but it does scare me a little. And Johnson- well, he's not getting the goal line carries. The Titans are going to LenDale White on the goal line, so if Johnson wants to score, he's going to have to do it at the end of a long run (which wouldn't be a bad thing). But I'd take 10 yards rushing and and 2 TD's over just 80 yards rushing anyday. Going up against Peterson, MJD, and Mendenhall (Parker's out, so Mendenhall's the starter this week), I think I'm behind here. Graham and Johnson need to find the endzone this week or I've got no chance.
WR/TE: The Colts are on the bye, so Vincent Jackson's in for Reggie Wayne. And while the Chiefs suck something awful, Dwayne Bowe is getting his, which is good since he's pretty much all they've got. I'm up against Housh and Greg Jennings, aka the favorite targets of Carson Palmer and Aaron Rogers. Sure, the Bengals offense is still struggling (though they had a good game last week), but they should be okay against Cleveland at home. If they do score, it'll either be Chris Perry on the ground of Housh through the air. He'll produce, as will Jennings against the Bucs. I'll need HUGE days from Bowe and Jackson to keep pace (and the TE points are negligible- neither of us has a big time TE, so those points are pretty meaningless).
DEF/K: As I said, the Pats are on the bye (hopefully spending time in the film room), so I picked up the Falcons D for the week. They had a big week last week, and I'm hoping for the same this week against Carolina. He's got the Bears against Philly, so I need McNabb and Co. to put up big numbers. I've gotten pretty good production (relatively speaking) from the K slot, but my regular (Hanson) is on the bye, so I picked up Jason Elam to fill in. I should be okay because I expect the Falcons (Elam) to score and have more chances to score than the Texans (Brown).
By my calculation, I've got the edge in D/ST and K- not exactly a formula for success. It'll be tough week, and if some of my guys continue to not find the endzone, it'll be even tougher. Its looking like 2-2 after Week 4.
No denying it, this blog is cursed. Its my blog, and I managed to jinx myself. No other proof is needed.
So after talking smack to Honester Ciphers last week, I lost 68-74. And when you break it down, its all Bill Belichick's fault (and the curse, but one could argue that the curse influenced the Pats D, which is clearly the case). The Patriots D put up a whopping -7 points for me last week. -7 points. I lost by 6 points. If the Pats could have managed 0 points, ZERO points, I would have won 75-74. But no, Belichick couldn't figure out how to stop the read-option. Ronnie Brown scored 5 TD's on the Pats D, 4 rushing, 1 throwing. He ran the read-option as well as Tim Tebow or Chase Daniels; who knew that the franchise QB Miami's been waiting for since the retirement of Dan Marino was Ronnie Brown? Of the 4 rushing TD's, 3 of them came out of the read-option set. In fact, they came off the same play. Direct snap to Brown, play fake to Ricky Williams, Williams runs out wide, Brown goes off tackle, Brown scores. Three times, same play, 3 TD's (and the passing touchdown also came off the read-option set). I thought college offenses weren't supposed to work in the NFL because NFL players were faster and coaches were better at making adjustments. That's apparently not the case in New England. Guess making defensive adjustments is tougher when you can't videotape your opponents signals.
Alright, enough about last week's debacle- onto Week 4, where I'm facing off against Down the Drain, who's currently in first place (he's the only 3-0 team in our league). I've got a lot of guys on the bye week, I'm not feeling good about this match up. When you see the lineups, you'll see why:
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Trent Edwards
RB: Marion Barber vs. Adrian Peterson
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Maurice Jones-Drew
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Rashad Mendenhall*
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Greg Jennings
TE: Jerramy Stevens vs. Alge Crumpler
D/ST: Falcons vs. Bears
K: Jason Elam vs. Kris Brown
*He's got Kevin Faulk in his lineup right now, but the Pats are on a bye, so I suspect he'll sub in Mendenhall off the bench.
QB: Doesn't seem like sexy match up, O'Sullivan vs. Edwards, but these guys are both having pretty good years. Sullivan came through for me last week (one of the few guys that did), and going against New Orleans's D this week, I expect more of the same. Of course, Edwards has the Rams, so he should also put up big numbers. Probably a push here in points.
RB: I like to think I have an edge on most teams in the RB department, but not so much anymore. I mean, Barber's a beast and is going to put up numbers all year. I expect Graham and Johnson to give me good numbers as well, but that didn't really happen last week. Graham gave me nothing, but that's because the Bucs put it 67 times; I don't expect them to do that every week, but it does scare me a little. And Johnson- well, he's not getting the goal line carries. The Titans are going to LenDale White on the goal line, so if Johnson wants to score, he's going to have to do it at the end of a long run (which wouldn't be a bad thing). But I'd take 10 yards rushing and and 2 TD's over just 80 yards rushing anyday. Going up against Peterson, MJD, and Mendenhall (Parker's out, so Mendenhall's the starter this week), I think I'm behind here. Graham and Johnson need to find the endzone this week or I've got no chance.
WR/TE: The Colts are on the bye, so Vincent Jackson's in for Reggie Wayne. And while the Chiefs suck something awful, Dwayne Bowe is getting his, which is good since he's pretty much all they've got. I'm up against Housh and Greg Jennings, aka the favorite targets of Carson Palmer and Aaron Rogers. Sure, the Bengals offense is still struggling (though they had a good game last week), but they should be okay against Cleveland at home. If they do score, it'll either be Chris Perry on the ground of Housh through the air. He'll produce, as will Jennings against the Bucs. I'll need HUGE days from Bowe and Jackson to keep pace (and the TE points are negligible- neither of us has a big time TE, so those points are pretty meaningless).
DEF/K: As I said, the Pats are on the bye (hopefully spending time in the film room), so I picked up the Falcons D for the week. They had a big week last week, and I'm hoping for the same this week against Carolina. He's got the Bears against Philly, so I need McNabb and Co. to put up big numbers. I've gotten pretty good production (relatively speaking) from the K slot, but my regular (Hanson) is on the bye, so I picked up Jason Elam to fill in. I should be okay because I expect the Falcons (Elam) to score and have more chances to score than the Texans (Brown).
By my calculation, I've got the edge in D/ST and K- not exactly a formula for success. It'll be tough week, and if some of my guys continue to not find the endzone, it'll be even tougher. Its looking like 2-2 after Week 4.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 3
Current record: 2-0
Total QB points: 3
I said last week that if Palmer had a repeat performance of Week 1, you'd see David Garrard in at QB. Well, Carson followed a "2" in Week 1 with a "1" in Week 2 (at least he didn't drop into the negative points, which was a staple of the QB position on last year's fantasy team). So Palmer's rocking the bench now. Problem is, Garrard hasn't exactly set the world on fire. So where do I turn?
J.T. O'Sullivan.
Yeah, J.T. O'Sullivan. I know he plays for San Fransisco. I know he sounds more like a sit-down, family-oriented, regional-chain restaurant than an NFL QB. But he had a monster Week 2 and he's playing a Detroit team that's given up a lot of points so far. I've won in spite of my QB "production," so anything I can get is just a bonus right now. And really, I can't do much worse.
The other change this week is at TE, where for the second straight week, a Tennessee TE earned me 0 points. So I dropped both of them (Crumpler and Scaife) and picked up Seattle's John Carlson. Seattle's lost approximately 47 WR to injuries through the first 2 weeks of the year, making Carlson Hasselbeck's top target. And if not, no big loss, I'm just looking for a TE that can get me more than 0 points. On to the Week 3 preview.
Week 3 has me up against Seattle Reign, a team helmed by Honseter Ciphers, the Asylum's Pacific Northwest Correspondent. Having already talked smack on his blog, I need to pull out the win. And looking at the lineups, I think I'm in good shape:
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Tony Romo
RB: Marion Barber vs. Julius Jones
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Ron Dayne
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Chris Chambers
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Roy Williams
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Roddy White
TE: John Carlson vs. Donald Lee
D/ST: Patriots vs. Cardinals
K: Jason Hanson vs. Josh Brown
QB: With Brady out and Peyton Manning still recovering, Romo may be the best QB in the league. He's certainly better than J.T. O'Sullivan, but all I just need is for O'Sullivan to put up any points at all to compliment my other skill position guys (of which I have a big edge this week).
RB: I've got Honester dominated here. Julius Jones is solid, obviously, and he cancels out Marion Barber's production. But Ron Dayne? Earnest Graham and Chris Johnson are on their way to big years, and I was surprised to learn Ron Dayne was still in the league. I make up a lot of points here and give myself a big cushion.
WR/TE: I discussed TE earlier. Carlson is the only real passing threat Seattle has, so he should crush Donald Lee, who isn't getting as many balls thrown his way under Aaron Rogers. Chambers has been solid for San Diego, and White's playing the Chiefs, so there's a chance these guys put up some decent numbers. And he could sub in Bernard Berrian for Roy Williams, if Berrian's healthy (and if he is, he'll have Gus "head butted a concrete wall and threw a pass with the opposite arm" Ferrotte at QB, which, sadly, is an upgrade for them) to boost his numbers. But I expect the same consistent numbers I've been getting out of Wayne and Bowe (though Kansas City is starting some guy they pulled out of the stands at QB), so I'm not worried.
DEF/K: First, props to Jason Hanson last week. I don't expect a lot of points from my K (unlike, say, QB), and I certainly didn't expect Hanson to give me 14 points like he did in Week 2. He went 3-3 on field goals (from 38, 49, and 53) and 2-2 on extra points. I doubt I get that kind of performance this week, but I don't think I'll need it. As for Honester Ciphers, ESPN.com projects his kicker, Josh Brown, for 15 this week, which makes him the second highest projected scorer on Seattle Reign. That can't be a good thing.
On the strength of my RB's and WR's, I think I win big this week. Its rare the at I feel this good about my team, so I'll probably end up losing. Something will inevitably bite me in the ass, be it the football gods smiting me for my over-confidence or the jinx I have of my own blog, but I can sense it coming. But doesn't change my prediction- I win big this week. Bring it on, Mortlaf!
Total QB points: 3
I said last week that if Palmer had a repeat performance of Week 1, you'd see David Garrard in at QB. Well, Carson followed a "2" in Week 1 with a "1" in Week 2 (at least he didn't drop into the negative points, which was a staple of the QB position on last year's fantasy team). So Palmer's rocking the bench now. Problem is, Garrard hasn't exactly set the world on fire. So where do I turn?
J.T. O'Sullivan.
Yeah, J.T. O'Sullivan. I know he plays for San Fransisco. I know he sounds more like a sit-down, family-oriented, regional-chain restaurant than an NFL QB. But he had a monster Week 2 and he's playing a Detroit team that's given up a lot of points so far. I've won in spite of my QB "production," so anything I can get is just a bonus right now. And really, I can't do much worse.
The other change this week is at TE, where for the second straight week, a Tennessee TE earned me 0 points. So I dropped both of them (Crumpler and Scaife) and picked up Seattle's John Carlson. Seattle's lost approximately 47 WR to injuries through the first 2 weeks of the year, making Carlson Hasselbeck's top target. And if not, no big loss, I'm just looking for a TE that can get me more than 0 points. On to the Week 3 preview.
Week 3 has me up against Seattle Reign, a team helmed by Honseter Ciphers, the Asylum's Pacific Northwest Correspondent. Having already talked smack on his blog, I need to pull out the win. And looking at the lineups, I think I'm in good shape:
QB: J.T. O'Sullivan vs. Tony Romo
RB: Marion Barber vs. Julius Jones
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Ron Dayne
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Chris Chambers
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Roy Williams
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Roddy White
TE: John Carlson vs. Donald Lee
D/ST: Patriots vs. Cardinals
K: Jason Hanson vs. Josh Brown
QB: With Brady out and Peyton Manning still recovering, Romo may be the best QB in the league. He's certainly better than J.T. O'Sullivan, but all I just need is for O'Sullivan to put up any points at all to compliment my other skill position guys (of which I have a big edge this week).
RB: I've got Honester dominated here. Julius Jones is solid, obviously, and he cancels out Marion Barber's production. But Ron Dayne? Earnest Graham and Chris Johnson are on their way to big years, and I was surprised to learn Ron Dayne was still in the league. I make up a lot of points here and give myself a big cushion.
WR/TE: I discussed TE earlier. Carlson is the only real passing threat Seattle has, so he should crush Donald Lee, who isn't getting as many balls thrown his way under Aaron Rogers. Chambers has been solid for San Diego, and White's playing the Chiefs, so there's a chance these guys put up some decent numbers. And he could sub in Bernard Berrian for Roy Williams, if Berrian's healthy (and if he is, he'll have Gus "head butted a concrete wall and threw a pass with the opposite arm" Ferrotte at QB, which, sadly, is an upgrade for them) to boost his numbers. But I expect the same consistent numbers I've been getting out of Wayne and Bowe (though Kansas City is starting some guy they pulled out of the stands at QB), so I'm not worried.
DEF/K: First, props to Jason Hanson last week. I don't expect a lot of points from my K (unlike, say, QB), and I certainly didn't expect Hanson to give me 14 points like he did in Week 2. He went 3-3 on field goals (from 38, 49, and 53) and 2-2 on extra points. I doubt I get that kind of performance this week, but I don't think I'll need it. As for Honester Ciphers, ESPN.com projects his kicker, Josh Brown, for 15 this week, which makes him the second highest projected scorer on Seattle Reign. That can't be a good thing.
On the strength of my RB's and WR's, I think I win big this week. Its rare the at I feel this good about my team, so I'll probably end up losing. Something will inevitably bite me in the ass, be it the football gods smiting me for my over-confidence or the jinx I have of my own blog, but I can sense it coming. But doesn't change my prediction- I win big this week. Bring it on, Mortlaf!
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 2
Thank God for Bernard Pollard.
Okay, not really. The hit on Tom Brady was all to reminiscent of Kimo von Oelhoffen's hit on Carson Palmer in the 2005 Playoffs. So while I'm not happy Brady is injured (I only root for injuries on AFC North teams), I am happy he didn't play longer than 8 minutes last week (because in those 8 minutes, Brady outscored Palmer, who played the whole damn game, 3 to 2- just pathetic).
Speaking of Week 1, even with Palmer's shitty performance, I was able to eke out the win 72-37. Okay, not really "eke out," especially since I had two guys (Deuce McAllister and Alge Crumpler) put up goose eggs. Sure, it helped that Brady only played 8 minutes, but it helped even more that his other skill position players (that's RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, and TE) garnered a grand total of 17 points (I got 22 points from Marion Barber alone).
So after a triumphant Week 1, it's on to Week 2 against Team Dreher, who beat Kwijybo Killer Clowns last week 81-72. Here's how the lineups stack up right now (again, my guys on the left):
QB: Carson Palmer vs. Jake Delhomme
RB: Marion Barber vs. Marshawn Lynch
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Thomas Jones
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Willie Parker
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Anquan Boldin
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Jerricho Cotchery
TE: Bo Scaife vs. Dallas Clark
D/ST: Patriots vs. Colts
K: Jason Hanson vs. Nte Kaeding
Like last week, ESPN.com's projections again have me winning, but not by much. I honestly think this one's a toss up, if not me behind by a bit.
QB: Assuming Carson Palmer (and the rest of the Bengals offense) shows up this week, I should be fine. If he has another game like he did in Week 1, I'll lose and you'll see David Garrard in the lineup for Week 3. I would think that Palmer has the edge here (and he does), but given how bad he looked in Week 1, I think this is a push.
RB: After McAllister's 0 point effort (he's battling injuries), I've decided to drink the Chris Johnson Kool-Aid and ride the wave of recent East Carolina success. He got most of the carries in Week 1 and was successful, so against the Bengals piss-poor defense (you know, the one that made Joe Flacco look like the white Michael Vick) and with Vince Young out with a knee injury (aka- on suicide watch), I'm expecting more of the same from Johnson (only this week, he'll get a touchdown or two). And I'm going to need it, because I'm up against a pretty formidable RB trio in Lynch, Jones, and Parker (and Parker should have a big day going against that same sad Cleveland D that Barber shredded last week). Even with Johnson's breakout week, I think RB is a push as well, with the slight edge going to Team Dreher.
WR/TE: Again, push, and only because Dallas Clark is questionable for this week. I picked up another TE (Bo Scaife, the Titans TE that actually gets the ball thrown to him) to replace my old one (Alge Crumpler, the Titans TE that doesn't get the ball thrown to him). As for WR, I think we're pretty even, though I think I'd give the slight edge to Dreher. Boldin's the top guy in Arizona and its clear that Cotchery has become Favre's go-to guy in New York. Wayne's still #2 in Indy but he'll get his catches, and Bowe plays for one of the worst teams in the NFL, so I think I'm a little behind here.
DEF/K: Not much to say here other than his DEF (the Colts) are playing a lesser team (in the Vikings) than my DEF (the Patriots) is (in the Jets). Though if the Pats D sets up and locks down Brett Favre and company, it could potential swing the week in my favor (given that Dreher's got 2 Jets on his team in Jones and Cotchery). But I'd again call this one pretty even.
So unless Carson Palmer has a huge day, I think I lose I close one this week. I don't care what ESPN.com's projections are, I just think Dreher's got a slightly better team than me. But you never, know- Jake Delhomme could go down with an injury in first quarter this week. Hey, it's happened before.
Okay, not really. The hit on Tom Brady was all to reminiscent of Kimo von Oelhoffen's hit on Carson Palmer in the 2005 Playoffs. So while I'm not happy Brady is injured (I only root for injuries on AFC North teams), I am happy he didn't play longer than 8 minutes last week (because in those 8 minutes, Brady outscored Palmer, who played the whole damn game, 3 to 2- just pathetic).
Speaking of Week 1, even with Palmer's shitty performance, I was able to eke out the win 72-37. Okay, not really "eke out," especially since I had two guys (Deuce McAllister and Alge Crumpler) put up goose eggs. Sure, it helped that Brady only played 8 minutes, but it helped even more that his other skill position players (that's RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, and TE) garnered a grand total of 17 points (I got 22 points from Marion Barber alone).
So after a triumphant Week 1, it's on to Week 2 against Team Dreher, who beat Kwijybo Killer Clowns last week 81-72. Here's how the lineups stack up right now (again, my guys on the left):
QB: Carson Palmer vs. Jake Delhomme
RB: Marion Barber vs. Marshawn Lynch
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Thomas Jones
RB/WR: Chris Johnson vs. Willie Parker
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Anquan Boldin
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Jerricho Cotchery
TE: Bo Scaife vs. Dallas Clark
D/ST: Patriots vs. Colts
K: Jason Hanson vs. Nte Kaeding
Like last week, ESPN.com's projections again have me winning, but not by much. I honestly think this one's a toss up, if not me behind by a bit.
QB: Assuming Carson Palmer (and the rest of the Bengals offense) shows up this week, I should be fine. If he has another game like he did in Week 1, I'll lose and you'll see David Garrard in the lineup for Week 3. I would think that Palmer has the edge here (and he does), but given how bad he looked in Week 1, I think this is a push.
RB: After McAllister's 0 point effort (he's battling injuries), I've decided to drink the Chris Johnson Kool-Aid and ride the wave of recent East Carolina success. He got most of the carries in Week 1 and was successful, so against the Bengals piss-poor defense (you know, the one that made Joe Flacco look like the white Michael Vick) and with Vince Young out with a knee injury (aka- on suicide watch), I'm expecting more of the same from Johnson (only this week, he'll get a touchdown or two). And I'm going to need it, because I'm up against a pretty formidable RB trio in Lynch, Jones, and Parker (and Parker should have a big day going against that same sad Cleveland D that Barber shredded last week). Even with Johnson's breakout week, I think RB is a push as well, with the slight edge going to Team Dreher.
WR/TE: Again, push, and only because Dallas Clark is questionable for this week. I picked up another TE (Bo Scaife, the Titans TE that actually gets the ball thrown to him) to replace my old one (Alge Crumpler, the Titans TE that doesn't get the ball thrown to him). As for WR, I think we're pretty even, though I think I'd give the slight edge to Dreher. Boldin's the top guy in Arizona and its clear that Cotchery has become Favre's go-to guy in New York. Wayne's still #2 in Indy but he'll get his catches, and Bowe plays for one of the worst teams in the NFL, so I think I'm a little behind here.
DEF/K: Not much to say here other than his DEF (the Colts) are playing a lesser team (in the Vikings) than my DEF (the Patriots) is (in the Jets). Though if the Pats D sets up and locks down Brett Favre and company, it could potential swing the week in my favor (given that Dreher's got 2 Jets on his team in Jones and Cotchery). But I'd again call this one pretty even.
So unless Carson Palmer has a huge day, I think I lose I close one this week. I don't care what ESPN.com's projections are, I just think Dreher's got a slightly better team than me. But you never, know- Jake Delhomme could go down with an injury in first quarter this week. Hey, it's happened before.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Week 1
Finally, the NFL season kicks off tonight. Time to look at my Week 1 fantasy match up:
Week 1, and I'm up against COL HOUCKofPANCAKES, aka the only undergrad in our league. Here's how the lineups stack up (my team on the left):
QB: Carson Palmer vs. Tom Brady
RB: Marion Barber vs. Darren McFadden
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Fred Taylor
RB/WR: Deuce McAllister vs. Ted Ginn, Jr.
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Steve Smith
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Joey Galloway
TE: Alge Crumpler vs. Tony Gonzales
D/ST: Patriots vs. Steelers
K: Jason Hanson vs. Stephen Gostkowski
Now, I have to think that he checks his team between now and Sunday and replaces Steve Smith with someone actually playing this week (though, my opponent has been known to have lapses in fantasy team management- but its Week 1, he's got to be paying attention). Looking at the rosters, I think it'll be a close week. According the ESPN.com's projections, I should win comfortably, but I'm not buying that just yet.
QB: I think I'm behind at QB, but who knows how hurt Brady really is/was and if not playing a snap in the preseason will effect him (not that preseason is any indicator- look at Palmer- but not seeing any game action has to have an effect). Hopefully Palmer (and the Bengals) can have a big day against a banged up Ravens defense and Brady really is hurt.
RB: I think I'm ahead at running back with Barber, Graham, and McAllister, but part of that is ESPN.com only projecting 10 points for McFadden. I think they're playing it safe because he's a rookie and no one knows how he'll fare in the NFL. He was Mr. Everything at Arkansas; I can't see why the Raiders (who have nothing else on offense) wouldn't be putting the ball in his hands somehow 30-40 times a game. Lots of chances for fantasy points, especially in Week 1 when you have the element of surprise. I expect McFadden to exceed 10 points and close the gap at RB.
WR/TE: Behind here, but not by much. I need Vince Young to fall in love with Alge Crumpler inside the red zone and for Brody Croyle to find Bowe in the end zone instead of Gonzales. And for Steve Smith to stay in his lineup.
DEF/K: These are such toss-up points, you never know what's going to happen. But the Pats are playing KC and the Steelers have Houston; Houston's a better team the KC, so I'd expect better DEF number for me. As for the kickers... they're kickers. As long as your guys doesn't go 0-4 on extra points (or 5-5 from 50+), everyone's pretty equal.
So I'm predicting a win for me in Week 1. Hope I didn't just jinx myself.
Week 1, and I'm up against COL HOUCKofPANCAKES, aka the only undergrad in our league. Here's how the lineups stack up (my team on the left):
QB: Carson Palmer vs. Tom Brady
RB: Marion Barber vs. Darren McFadden
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Fred Taylor
RB/WR: Deuce McAllister vs. Ted Ginn, Jr.
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Steve Smith
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Joey Galloway
TE: Alge Crumpler vs. Tony Gonzales
D/ST: Patriots vs. Steelers
K: Jason Hanson vs. Stephen Gostkowski
Now, I have to think that he checks his team between now and Sunday and replaces Steve Smith with someone actually playing this week (though, my opponent has been known to have lapses in fantasy team management- but its Week 1, he's got to be paying attention). Looking at the rosters, I think it'll be a close week. According the ESPN.com's projections, I should win comfortably, but I'm not buying that just yet.
QB: I think I'm behind at QB, but who knows how hurt Brady really is/was and if not playing a snap in the preseason will effect him (not that preseason is any indicator- look at Palmer- but not seeing any game action has to have an effect). Hopefully Palmer (and the Bengals) can have a big day against a banged up Ravens defense and Brady really is hurt.
RB: I think I'm ahead at running back with Barber, Graham, and McAllister, but part of that is ESPN.com only projecting 10 points for McFadden. I think they're playing it safe because he's a rookie and no one knows how he'll fare in the NFL. He was Mr. Everything at Arkansas; I can't see why the Raiders (who have nothing else on offense) wouldn't be putting the ball in his hands somehow 30-40 times a game. Lots of chances for fantasy points, especially in Week 1 when you have the element of surprise. I expect McFadden to exceed 10 points and close the gap at RB.
WR/TE: Behind here, but not by much. I need Vince Young to fall in love with Alge Crumpler inside the red zone and for Brody Croyle to find Bowe in the end zone instead of Gonzales. And for Steve Smith to stay in his lineup.
DEF/K: These are such toss-up points, you never know what's going to happen. But the Pats are playing KC and the Steelers have Houston; Houston's a better team the KC, so I'd expect better DEF number for me. As for the kickers... they're kickers. As long as your guys doesn't go 0-4 on extra points (or 5-5 from 50+), everyone's pretty equal.
So I'm predicting a win for me in Week 1. Hope I didn't just jinx myself.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Post-Draft Analysis
First off, I think I like Yahoo!'s draft setup better than ESPN.com's. We had some weird freeze ups where people couldn't draft players and the draft had to be paused and edited, and the whole thing just seemed like a hassle. Anyway, on to the draft results. I had the 10th pick (in a 14 team league); here's how I drafted:
Round 1 (#10 overall): Marion Barber, RB
Round 2 (#19): Reggie Wayne, WR
Round 3 (#38): Carson Palmer, QB
Round 4 (#47): Earnest Graham, RB
Round 5 (#66): Laveranues Coles, WR
Round 6 (#75): Dwayne Bowe, WR
Round 7 (#94): Deuce McAllister, RB
Round 8 (#103): David Garrard, QB
Round 9 (#122): Alge Crumpler, TE
Round 10 (#131): Chris Johnson, RB
Round 11 (#150): Vincent Jackson, WR
Round 12 (#159): Patriots, DEF
Round 13 (#178): Arnaz Battle, WR
Round 14 (#187): Michael Bush, RB
Round 15 (#206): Limas Sweed, WR
Round 16 (#215): Lawrence Tynes, K
Overall draft thoughts:
-I like having 14 teams. It requires using backups and thrid- and fourth-tier guys to win the league and not just relying on the 3 stud players you picked up because your league's only 10 teams deep. Sometimes this means getting lucky with a pick; hey, that happens and its part of the game.
-As usual, not everyone could make it to the live draft (though our man in Belgium made it for the first half, some 6 hours ahead of EDT; that's dedication). And as usual, the autodraft makes things interesting, especially when some people pre-rank their players (like Honester Ciphers, the Asylum's Pacific Northwest Correspondent) and some don't. For example, picks #1 and #2 weren't at the live draft and didn't pre-rank their players (at least, it didn't appear they did); that meant every time the draft snaked around to the top, there were 4 automatic picks that were based on the best available players left, according to ESPN's rankings. So if there was a guy you wanted to take in the next round but he was near the top of the "best available" list, you had to take him early because by the time it snaked back to you, the autodraft would have taken him. Makes for interesting (and sometimes questionable) draft strategy.
Now to look at my draft:
-Barber and Wayne in Rounds 1 and 2. Top of the draft, take the best available. I think these are pretty solid picks. Looking at the guys taken in Rounds 1 and 2, I don't think I could have done much better given where I was picking (at #10 and #19).
-Palmer and Garrard in Rounds 3 and 8. Homer pick? A little, but it makes it easier on Sundays since I'm going to rooting for him and the Bengals anyway. And I think I have a more than capable backup in David Garrard. I like Garrard. I got him last year at about the same time in the draft and he ended up being my starter most of the season. Hopefully Carson has a great year and I don't have to use Garrard. If not, I think I'm still okay at QB.
-Graham in Round 4. Graham had a quietly solid year last year. Hopefully he can do the same this year.
-Coles and Bowe in Rounds 5 and 6. Two things I'm hoping for here. One, I hope that Coles gets over his man-crush of Chad Pennington and realizes that Brett Favre, while old, is still better than Pennington ever was. And two, I hope they find someone in Kansas City who can get the ball to Bowe. If those things happen, I think these guys could have pretty good years.
-McAllister in Round 7. I was targeting Felix Jones here to have the Barber/Jones backfield combo, and he was available at the start of the round, but was taken 6 picks before I could get him. So since I had my backfield duo broken up, I took McAllister to break up someone else's Saints backfield combo.
-Crumpler in Round 9. He's best years were when he had Michael Vick at QB. Here's hoping he can put up comparable numbers now that he's with a comparable QB in Vince Young.
-Johnson in Round 10. I think every fantasy football publication has Chris Johnson listed as a potential "sleeper pick" this year. I don't know about that, but Round 10 seemed like a good place to take a chance.
-Patriots defense in Round 12. Too soon for a defense? Probably. I was actually looking at taking a shot at DeSean Jackson here (matching him with Johnson as "potential rookie sleepers"), but I thought there might be a run on defenses (because my league can be weird like that) and that I could wait on Jackson until the next round. Wrong and wrong. I could have easily gotten the Pats D (or a comparable one) later on and DeSean Jackson was taken six picks later. Oh well.
-Jackson, Battle, Bush, and Sweed in Rounds 11, 13, 14, and 15. Just looking to fill out the roster with skill position guys. I think Limas Sweed will end up being a pretty good receiver in the NFL. I thought that Sweed would have been a good second round pick for the Bengals in this year's draft (hell, DeSean Jackson would've been good, too). Instead, they took Jerome Simpson from Coastal Carolina, had every wideout on the roster get hurt, and then resigned Chris Henry. Well done, Mike Brown, well done.
-Tynes in Round 16. Okay, big mistake here. I didn't know that Tynes was coming off of exploratory knee surgery (I don't do much scouting on kickers). So I'm going to drop him and pick up Matt Stover (ie- the Ravens main offensive weapon) on Friday when the waiver wire opens. Actually, I was looking at Rob Bironas here (was solid for me last year, including the 8 field goal game), but he was taken 2 picks before me. Oh well- its just a kicker.
Overall thoughts on my team right now: I think its a good team, not a great one. I feel pretty good about my starting guys, but I've got some serious doubt about my bench. But we'll see how it turns out. I'll be previewing my Week 1 match up next week, once everyone's done tweaking their rosters.
Round 1 (#10 overall): Marion Barber, RB
Round 2 (#19): Reggie Wayne, WR
Round 3 (#38): Carson Palmer, QB
Round 4 (#47): Earnest Graham, RB
Round 5 (#66): Laveranues Coles, WR
Round 6 (#75): Dwayne Bowe, WR
Round 7 (#94): Deuce McAllister, RB
Round 8 (#103): David Garrard, QB
Round 9 (#122): Alge Crumpler, TE
Round 10 (#131): Chris Johnson, RB
Round 11 (#150): Vincent Jackson, WR
Round 12 (#159): Patriots, DEF
Round 13 (#178): Arnaz Battle, WR
Round 14 (#187): Michael Bush, RB
Round 15 (#206): Limas Sweed, WR
Round 16 (#215): Lawrence Tynes, K
Overall draft thoughts:
-I like having 14 teams. It requires using backups and thrid- and fourth-tier guys to win the league and not just relying on the 3 stud players you picked up because your league's only 10 teams deep. Sometimes this means getting lucky with a pick; hey, that happens and its part of the game.
-As usual, not everyone could make it to the live draft (though our man in Belgium made it for the first half, some 6 hours ahead of EDT; that's dedication). And as usual, the autodraft makes things interesting, especially when some people pre-rank their players (like Honester Ciphers, the Asylum's Pacific Northwest Correspondent) and some don't. For example, picks #1 and #2 weren't at the live draft and didn't pre-rank their players (at least, it didn't appear they did); that meant every time the draft snaked around to the top, there were 4 automatic picks that were based on the best available players left, according to ESPN's rankings. So if there was a guy you wanted to take in the next round but he was near the top of the "best available" list, you had to take him early because by the time it snaked back to you, the autodraft would have taken him. Makes for interesting (and sometimes questionable) draft strategy.
Now to look at my draft:
-Barber and Wayne in Rounds 1 and 2. Top of the draft, take the best available. I think these are pretty solid picks. Looking at the guys taken in Rounds 1 and 2, I don't think I could have done much better given where I was picking (at #10 and #19).
-Palmer and Garrard in Rounds 3 and 8. Homer pick? A little, but it makes it easier on Sundays since I'm going to rooting for him and the Bengals anyway. And I think I have a more than capable backup in David Garrard. I like Garrard. I got him last year at about the same time in the draft and he ended up being my starter most of the season. Hopefully Carson has a great year and I don't have to use Garrard. If not, I think I'm still okay at QB.
-Graham in Round 4. Graham had a quietly solid year last year. Hopefully he can do the same this year.
-Coles and Bowe in Rounds 5 and 6. Two things I'm hoping for here. One, I hope that Coles gets over his man-crush of Chad Pennington and realizes that Brett Favre, while old, is still better than Pennington ever was. And two, I hope they find someone in Kansas City who can get the ball to Bowe. If those things happen, I think these guys could have pretty good years.
-McAllister in Round 7. I was targeting Felix Jones here to have the Barber/Jones backfield combo, and he was available at the start of the round, but was taken 6 picks before I could get him. So since I had my backfield duo broken up, I took McAllister to break up someone else's Saints backfield combo.
-Crumpler in Round 9. He's best years were when he had Michael Vick at QB. Here's hoping he can put up comparable numbers now that he's with a comparable QB in Vince Young.
-Johnson in Round 10. I think every fantasy football publication has Chris Johnson listed as a potential "sleeper pick" this year. I don't know about that, but Round 10 seemed like a good place to take a chance.
-Patriots defense in Round 12. Too soon for a defense? Probably. I was actually looking at taking a shot at DeSean Jackson here (matching him with Johnson as "potential rookie sleepers"), but I thought there might be a run on defenses (because my league can be weird like that) and that I could wait on Jackson until the next round. Wrong and wrong. I could have easily gotten the Pats D (or a comparable one) later on and DeSean Jackson was taken six picks later. Oh well.
-Jackson, Battle, Bush, and Sweed in Rounds 11, 13, 14, and 15. Just looking to fill out the roster with skill position guys. I think Limas Sweed will end up being a pretty good receiver in the NFL. I thought that Sweed would have been a good second round pick for the Bengals in this year's draft (hell, DeSean Jackson would've been good, too). Instead, they took Jerome Simpson from Coastal Carolina, had every wideout on the roster get hurt, and then resigned Chris Henry. Well done, Mike Brown, well done.
-Tynes in Round 16. Okay, big mistake here. I didn't know that Tynes was coming off of exploratory knee surgery (I don't do much scouting on kickers). So I'm going to drop him and pick up Matt Stover (ie- the Ravens main offensive weapon) on Friday when the waiver wire opens. Actually, I was looking at Rob Bironas here (was solid for me last year, including the 8 field goal game), but he was taken 2 picks before me. Oh well- its just a kicker.
Overall thoughts on my team right now: I think its a good team, not a great one. I feel pretty good about my starting guys, but I've got some serious doubt about my bench. But we'll see how it turns out. I'll be previewing my Week 1 match up next week, once everyone's done tweaking their rosters.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Fantasy Football Failure: Pre-Draft
Okay, new running segment; my (soon-to-be-assembled) fantasy football team.
Let me start off my saying that I am what you would consider an above-casual fantasy football player (I play fantasy baseball, too, and by "play" I mean "someone has to finish last"). I'd say I'm an average (in terms of "ability") fantasy football player, and I generally tend to fare pretty well, but when it comes to fantasy sports, I find it easier just to assume failure (hence the title of the post). I mean, I like fantasy football, but I'm not obsessive about it. I don't go overboard with the analysis, but I like to think I have some idea of what I'm talking about. I like that fantasy football gives me a reason to care about games like Raiders-49ers. I like the distraction from work. I like that its football. But between my fantasy team and my real team (the Bengals), the real team wins out every time.
I guess this will be mainly a weekly update, most likely on Tuesday or Wednesday, reviewing the past week's games, looking at player performance, discussing possible roster moves, and planning ahead to for week. I'll also take any advice any readers (all 4 or 5 of you) might have about my team.
So my live draft is just under an hour from now (we draft on-line; the league I play in consists of friends from college, and with players in places like Texas, Seattle, and Belgium, its kinda tough to get together for a live, in person draft). We've spent the last few years playing over at Yahoo! Sports, but we've made the jump over the ESPN.com this year. I'm not really sure why, I never had a problem with Yahoo!, but I guess some people complained about not having live scoring (as if that really matters), so ESPN.com is it. Over at Yahoo!, I ended up with the #1 pick something like 3 out of the last 5 years, so we'll see what happens this year. Time for some last minute cramming.
Let me start off my saying that I am what you would consider an above-casual fantasy football player (I play fantasy baseball, too, and by "play" I mean "someone has to finish last"). I'd say I'm an average (in terms of "ability") fantasy football player, and I generally tend to fare pretty well, but when it comes to fantasy sports, I find it easier just to assume failure (hence the title of the post). I mean, I like fantasy football, but I'm not obsessive about it. I don't go overboard with the analysis, but I like to think I have some idea of what I'm talking about. I like that fantasy football gives me a reason to care about games like Raiders-49ers. I like the distraction from work. I like that its football. But between my fantasy team and my real team (the Bengals), the real team wins out every time.
I guess this will be mainly a weekly update, most likely on Tuesday or Wednesday, reviewing the past week's games, looking at player performance, discussing possible roster moves, and planning ahead to for week. I'll also take any advice any readers (all 4 or 5 of you) might have about my team.
So my live draft is just under an hour from now (we draft on-line; the league I play in consists of friends from college, and with players in places like Texas, Seattle, and Belgium, its kinda tough to get together for a live, in person draft). We've spent the last few years playing over at Yahoo! Sports, but we've made the jump over the ESPN.com this year. I'm not really sure why, I never had a problem with Yahoo!, but I guess some people complained about not having live scoring (as if that really matters), so ESPN.com is it. Over at Yahoo!, I ended up with the #1 pick something like 3 out of the last 5 years, so we'll see what happens this year. Time for some last minute cramming.
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