Fantasy Football Failure: Week 16

Well, well, well, look who made it to his fantasy championship game. Thanks to solid days from Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Faulk, all my wideouts, and an improbable late fumble return for a touchdown by the Jets defense (thank you, J.P. Losman!), I prevailed over the #1 seed Down The Drain 101-85 to advance to this week's championship game.

For the championship, I face off against the #2 seed Team Dreher, who I beat 99-82 way back in Week 2. That week, I survived a massive week from Anquan Boldin (32 fantasy points!) with big days from Marion Barber and Earnest Graham (and solid days from Chris Johnson and Reggie Wayne). I'll probably need another week like that (or like last week) to beat Dreher for a second time.

QB: Tyler Thigpen vs. Chad Pennington
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Marshawn Lynch
RB: Kevin Faulk vs. Thomas Jones
RB/WR: Vincent Jackson vs. Warrick Dunn
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Anquan Boldin
WR: Dwyane Bowe vs. Devin Hester
TE: Zach Miller vs. Dallas Clark
D/ST: Jets vs. Buccaneers
K: Jason Elam vs. Nate Kaeding

QB: David Garrard's been great that past few weeks, but I've riden Tyler Thigpen this far, so I've got to stay with him. Miami's not that great against the pass, so I expect Thipgen to get his usual 15-18 fantasy points. And speaking of Miami, Chad Pennington could have a decent day as well, seeing that Kansas City is even worse than Miami against the pass. But I expect the 'Fins to run the ball against KC with Brown and Williams, and the Chiefs to counter through the air with Bowe and Gonzalez, so I like Thigpen in this matchup.

RB: First off, eventhough he's got a g]touch matchup against Pittsburgh, I can't not start Chris Johnson. He's been too good all year to sit him down now. He stays in, and while I don't expect a whole lot of yards, I think he will manage to find the endzone. Kevin Faulk also stays in because I'm still not sure about the Marion Barber/Tashard Choice situation. Faulk's been solid 3 of the past 4 weeks, combining rushing and passing yards to score in the double digits. Arizona doesn't play much defense, so Faulk's got some value as a receiver. As for the Cowboys, I just don't know right now. Barber was active last week, but didn't do anything, and Choice came in and had his second straight huge game. That's two great games against two great defenses (the Steelers and the Giants). Does he keep it going against another great D, Baltimore? Regardless, I won't have Barber in there, but does Choice merit a start over Faulk? I don't know, and the Cowboys play Saturday night, so I've got less time to think about it. As for Dreher's RB's, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Jones should have their usual solid games. I'm less worried about Warrick Dunn, but Lynch and Jones are a strong backfield that will be tough to keep pace with. I'll need some big games from my guys.

WR/TE: So Reggie Wayne didn't find the endzone last week (and he came so close), but he did break a 100 yards receiving, so I won't bench him. Yet. I am tempted to take a flyer on Laveraneus Coles this week because Seattle is dead last against the pass, but I just can't do it. The Colts need a win tonight to secure a spot in the playoffs, and Marvin Harrison is out, so I expect a lot of balls to go Reggie Wayne's way. Of course, those balls could also go to Dallas Clark, which would be bad, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen. As I said earlier, I'm sticking with Thigpen, which means I'm sticking with Dwayne Bowe; just find the endzone once and I'll be happy. Vincent Jackson's been a nice surprise the past 2 weeks, and its clear that Philip Rivers is looking for him with the deep ball. Eighty yards and a TD isn't out of the question. On the other side, Devin Hester doesn't scare me, but Anquan Boldin does. Sure, he's been down the past 3 weeks (4, 6, and 1 fantasy points), but despite that, he's still the #4 overall fantasy wideout. I've already mentioned Clarks potential for another good game with Harrison out tonight. Hopefully, its not too good so Zach Miller's 6 catches for 70 yards will be able to keep pace (man, I'd love for Miller to find the endzone this week....).

DEF/K: The Jets D had no business scoring 16 fantasy points last week. Thankfully, the Bills are terrible and decided to move J.P. Losman out of the pocket to throw with less than 2 minutes on the clock instead of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who'd gone for over 120 yards at that point. A sack, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown; that's a 9 points defensive fantasy play. Hopefully this week Seneca Wallace remembers that he's Seneca Wallace and not Peyton Manning and throws a few picks (perhaps even one for a TD). Aside from the debacle against Carolina two weeks ago, the Bucs D is always solid. And I don't expect either kicker to score much more than 7-8 points.

So what are my chances to win the championship? I'd say that right now, I'm the underdog, with a 35%-40% chance of pulling the upset. I've got a solid team, but I think Dreher's team's a little bit better. I think it comes down to the running backs, I need big days from them. Chris Johnson against the Steelers and either Faulk or Choice at the other RB slot. If those guys score big (or at least if they just find the endzone), I think I can pull out the championship.