Early Baseball Thoughts

Spring training games start next week, so its time to talk baseball. Not necessarily predictions, but just some things that are on my mind.

-Alex Rodriguez: Unlike Bonds, McGwire, and Clemons, I think A-Rod still has a shot at the Hall of Fame. Why? Two main reasons- one, because he actually admitted to using PHD's. Sure, his "apology" and his "press conference" were total shams, and there are a lot of holes in his story, but at the very least, he admitted to knowingly taking a banned substance (though that term has to be applied cautiously since before 2004, there weren't any banned substances in baseball, with the possible exeption of cocaine). It clear A-Rod isn't telling the whole truth, but since we'll never get the whole truth, his crisis-managment-spun story will have to do. The other reason I think he still has a chance to Cooperstown is because he's still got a lot of baseball left in him. All of the other Hall of Fame calliber players connected to PED's are retired, but A-Rod's in a unique (for now) position to play his way back into Hall consideration. And I say "for now" because we don't know the names of the other 103 players that tested positive back in 2003. Perhaps there are other Hall-worthy names on that list, perhaps not. Either way, now that A-Rod's name is out there, I think the other names should be released as well. As much as I don't like A-Rod, I do think it is unfair that he's the only one being targeted when there are 103 other players as guilty as he is. But back to the point- with 9 years left on his contract, A-Rod has a lot of time to distance himself from this. He'll never get rid of it, but the longer he plays, assuming he continues to play at his current level of production, the better chance he has of reducing the stain. I wonder what it'll be like when he passes Bonds on the home run list (because let's face it, A-Rod's hitting 800); maybe that'll be a barometer as to his Hall of Fame chances.

-Ken Griffey, Jr.: So Griffey's heading back to Seattle. Its a one-year deal, which means only one thing- 2009 will be Junior's last year in baseball. He'll platoon in left, hit some DH, and hopefully sell some more tickets at SafeCo, because this move does absolutely nothing in helping the M's win some more games this year. Listen, I'm a big Griffey fan- I think I've made that clear- but let's be serious; the M's are a wreak and they aren't going anyway anytime soon. He had a chance to sign with Atlanta, where he would have been closer to his home and a good chance to win (the two factors that lead him to Cincinnati back in 2000). Instead he chose exact opposite, and I think I'm okay with that. So he chose to take a victory lap instead of trying for a ring. Good for him Let him retire a Mariner and ensure that he'll be an M's cap on his plaque in Cooperstown (as if there was any doubt to that).

-The Reds: As I mentioned previously, I think the Reds can eke out an above .500 record (note: as predicted, a number of those predictions have already been proven to be wrong). Its a young team with a lot of potential and hopefully that can translate into wins. But there are still some concerns with this team. Is Chris Dickerson really the answer in left? Is Ramon Hernandez really the answer behind the plate? The team wanted to get a big right-handed bat and didn't; do they have enough offense to compete? Can Alex Gonzalez be trusted to stay healthy? Dusty's said that Phillips will start the year batting cleanup; I guess that would make the lineup Taveras, Dickerson (or whoever's in left), Bruce, Phillips, Votto, Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Hernandez. Is that a contending lineup? I don't know. Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, and Cueto seem to be set in the rotation, but who's in the fifth slot? Will it be Homer Bailey or Micah Owings? Those two seem to be the leading candidates. Bailey's got the hype and potential and Owings probably the best hitting pitcher in the game right now. If Homer can live up to the all the hype then I'd say he's a no-brainer for the fifth spot. But he's done nothing but struggle in his major league career, so there really isn't any reason to be optimistic about him. If Bailey does make the rotation, what do you do with Owings? Make him a reliever/pinch hitter? Maybe the Reds should flip him Rick Ankiel style and put him out in left. He'd probably have a higher average than whoever they platoon out there.

Despite the medicore outlook for the Reds, I'm never not excited for baseball season. And given that I don't follow the NBA and Virginia won't even be making the NIT field, its pretty much all I've got to look forward to right now (well, that and college lacrosse- go Hoos!).