The Bracket, Take One

Okay, the NCAA Tournament Bracket is out, time for some knee-jerk reactions (subject to change as the week goes on).

Overall: No complaints about the #1 seeds, and Louisville deserves the overall #1 seed after winning the Big East tournament (and with the other candidates losing). I don't get how Maryland made the field, especially at a #10 seed. I really don't get how Arizona made it at a #12. Where's the love for Creighton or St. Mary's? Thirty-four at-large bids, 30 to major (BCS) conference schools, 4 to mid-majors. I know the tournament committee doesn't take conference affiliation into account, but that ratio is unacceptable in my mind. But those teams were really the only ones I had a beef with. And speaking of conference affiliation, I believe I got another bold 2009 prediction wrong. I said that 10 Big East would make the tournament; they got 7. Well, I didn't count on Notre Dame and Georgetown tanking like they did, and UC had a shot until the folded late in the year. I also said that no Big East team would make the Final Four; that one's most certainly going to be proven wrong (more on this later).

Midwest: I like Louisville in this region. In fact, I think this region will mostly hold to the seeds, with only a few upsets. USC over Boston College could be it. I'd love to see Dayton over West Virginia and Cleveland State over Wake, but those are probably long shots. Normally I would take Siena over Ohio State, but the game's in Dayton, so I think its the Buckeyes. Michigan State v. Kansas in the Sweet 16 would be a great matchup. In the end, again, I'm going with Louisville.

West: Did Memphis deserve the #1 seed here over UConn? Does it really matter? Purdue's playing pretty well right now, now that they're healthy again. I think they could give UConn a good run in the Sweet 16, but they wouldn't have an answer for Thabeet down low. I like Mississippi State, hot off their SEC tournament win, to upset Washington in the first round. I think Marquette's vulnerable because of Dominic James's injur; Utah State could pull the upset there, too. It looks like a pretty clear path for a UConn-Memphis showdown, but I think Missouri could sneak up in there and surprise some people. Not sure who I like out of this region yet.

East: This is a tough region. Florida State's playing well right now, and could knock off Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16 and have a rematch with Duke in the Elite 8. That is, if Duke can get past VCU (who I think will make the Sweet 16). The Rams knocked off Duke 2 years again, then lost to Pittsburgh. If VCU can get to a matchup with Duke and get past them, Pittsburgh could again be on the other side (assuming they get past the Seminoles). Of course, that could all go to hell if Villanova gets hot and makes a run, which is more than possible. Right now, I'm taking Pittsburgh out of the East.

South: How great would a Hansbrough-Griffin matchup be in the Elite 8? I don't see either one getting upset, so I think it happens. And if it does, I like Oklahoma and Blake Griffin to advance to the Final Four. I don't see a lot of upsets in this region, outside of Western Kentucky over Illinois (sorry, bro). You need a 12-5 upset, and with Illinois's starting point guard out with a wrist injury, I think this is the most likely candidate.

Final Four: So I've got Louisville, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, and a team to be named later in my Final Four right now. Does UConn make it and give the Big East 3 teams in? Very, very possible (hello, 1985 Final Four). And what about Syracuse in the West? They are more than capable of coming out of there as the #3 seed, which could give the Big East all four teams in the Final Four. Its never happened, four teams from the same conference, but up until last year, all four #1 seeds had never all made the Final Four, either. And if its ever going to happen, its got to be this year with the Big East, since I predicted that zero Big East teams would make the Final Four. If that happens, it would just be rubbing salt in the wound that is the curse of this blog. So I think there's a good chance it does.

As always, these predictions are subject to change throughout the week. I'll revisit the bracket either Tuesday or Wednesday with updated thoughts and predictions that are sure to be wrong.