Okay, I've had a few days to digest the bracket, and I've come to my final picks, which I've entered in a number of ESPN.com groups (Around The Horn, PTI, and Mike & Mike's Sheets of Integrity) and the one pool I've entered for money. I tend to fill out a number of brackets, but there's always one bracket I consider my "official" bracket, and that's this one. Based on history, this bracket is guaranteed to be no more than 60% correct, and won't be anywhere near the top of any leaderboard. How do I know this? Since I started following college basketball (which was around 1990 or 1991), I've picked exactly ONE decent bracket (1995, I finished second in my pool; if it had been UNC to lose to UCLA instead of Arkansas, I would've won). So I expect these picks to follow the trend I've already set and fail miserably.
Midwest: Round 1 winners- Louisville, Ohio State, Utah, Wake, Dayton, Kansas, USC, Michigan State. I really wanted to pick Cleveland State over Wake and North Dakota State over Kansas, but I couldn't; too much of a wuss. I don't think USC over BC is much of an upset given how hot USC's been lately, and I like Dayton over West Virginia because I don't like West Virginia (and let's face it, they don't like me either). In the Sweet 16 I've got Louisville, Utah, Kansas, and Michigan State. Louisville and Michigan State in the Elite 8, and Louisville in the Final Four.
West: Round 1 winners- UConn, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi State, Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis. Despite me thinking that Maryland doesn't even belong in the tournament, I think they'll beat Cal. I like Mississippi State to ride their hot streak past Washington (I'm not real big on Pac-10 teams) and all the way to the Sweet 16 (getting past Purdue in the process, which is tough because I really like this Purdue team). Marquette without Dominic James isn't Marquette, so I fully expect Utah State to pull the upset. Joining Mississippi State in the Sweet 16 is UConn, Missouri, and Memphis. I would love to see Mississippi State continue the run, but I think they fall to UConn, and Memphis beats Missouri. Then I've got Memphis advancing to the Final Four over UConn. They'll be able to play the disrespect card all the way through the tournament, and that'll give them the edge of UConn in the regional final.
East: Round 1 winners- Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Florida State, Xavier, VCU, Villanova, Texas, Duke. I really, REALLY wanted to take Portland State over Xavier because XU has struggled down the stretch, but I couldn't; I think they can win one game before getting crushed by Florida State (really like this Seminole team). VCU is a homer pick- I used to live in Richmond, VA- and again, I don't think very much of the Pac-10. They also have two stud players (in Maynor and Sanders) that can more and hold their own against Collison and Shipp. But as much as I love me some VCU, they don't get past Villanova. 'Nova is the under-the-radar Big East team that not enough people are paying attention to. Pitt, FSU, 'Nova, and Duke in the Sweet 16, with Pitt and 'Nova in the Elite 8. I know Pitt is prone to choking in these situations, but I think this is the year they finally make the Final Four.
South: Round 1 winners- UNC, Butler, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Syacuse, Clemson, Oklahoma. As I said in my initial thoughts on the bracket, Illinois is vulnerable without Chester Frazier running the point. If he can't go in Round 1 (or even if he's out there at less than 100%), I think the Hilltoppers bounce the Illini. I see the rest of this bracket holding to seed, with Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, and Oklahoma in the Sweet 16, and Carolina and Oklahoma in the Elite 8. I went back and forth on this one, Carolina or Oklahoma, and in the end, decided to stay with the Sooners. And I recognize that could be purely out of my hatred for all things Carolina. And I'm okay with that.
Final Four: Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma- pretty much what I picked on Sunday. I like Louisville over Memphis and Oklahoma over Pittsburgh (man, how great would it be to see Griffin-Hansbrough one weekend, then Griffin-Blair the next?) with Louisville as your 2009 National Champion.
But what do I know. As soon as the ball goes up tomorrow, I'll be rooting for all the upsets, hoping and praying that my, and everyone else's, bracket gets shot to hell by Friday night. Its why Thursday and Friday are the best two days in sports all year.
And a bonus- check out President Obama making his picks:
I think he picked Carolina simply because he played a pick up game with them during the campaign.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
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3 comments:
south region comment: i'm not sold on clemson or oklahoma. i think michigan makes the sweet 16, beating them both. i'm a michigan blowhard, of course, but not many big men can handle sims, esp when he steps out and starts knocking down 15-footers. add harris to the mix and some timely 3s from novak, and you've got yourself a sweet 16 team.
my only question for beilein: why not grady at point? merritt and lee are average. but grady is the point guard of the future for michigan. he's made quite a few mistakes, but he's a freshman and the big 10 was a lot better this year than most anticipated. he needed the experience.
go blue!
Did you seriously just use your comment to make a Sweet 16 case for a team that barely deserved to make the tournament? Wow, you are a blowhard.
Maybe they can get past Clemson; Clemson is wildly inconsistent, so it wouldn't surprise me if they just laid an egg in Round One. But not sold on Oklahoma? Please. Name me some big men that can handle Blake Griffin (without, you know, elbowing him in the head and giving him a concussion)?
And seriously, I really doubt John Beilein's a reader of this blog, so I think your question will go unanswered. Sorry.
"barely deserved the make the tournament?" - at a 10 seed, i'd say the committee never doubted michigan's entry. with early season wins over then-#4 duke and ucla, 2 wins against minnesota, wins against illinois and purdue, and a top 10 strength of schedule and a top 50 rpi rating, i don't think it was in doubt, either. of course, the loss at iowa didn't help, but they overcame that with great wins at home v. purdue and on the road at minnesota.
thoughts from clemson game: michigan hit a lot of 3s, especially in the first half, and harris was practically unstoppable. and they beat clemson's press with ease; great work from a team without a real point guard.
clemson did punish itself, though: they missed a bunch of open shots, including a ton of sitters (yes, i'm looking at you, rivers; you choked). and oglesby is a white trash hot head. he held lee and douglass every time michigan attempted to in-bound the ball, and when douglass holds him once, oglesby responds with a dirty elbow. he deserved to get ejected. strangely, though, i think i would have preferred for him to stay in the game. he was ice cold, really peeved, and would have probably missed more shots, committed more stupid fouls, and turned the ball over a few more times.
mich has their hands full v. oklahoma, and oklahoma will most likely win. douglass and novak have to hot from the behind the arc, harris has to be on his game (and, by the way, if tim brando says "that's manny being manny" one more time, i'm watching the game on mute), and sims has to handle (not shut down) griffin. keep griffin to 18 and 8 and mich has a chance; keeping griffin's numbers low means that michigan controls the tempo of the game. if they don't, they'll get run out of the gym.
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