Fantasy Football Failure: Week 1

Finally, the NFL season kicks off tonight. Time to look at my Week 1 fantasy match up:

Week 1, and I'm up against COL HOUCKofPANCAKES, aka the only undergrad in our league. Here's how the lineups stack up (my team on the left):

QB: Carson Palmer vs. Tom Brady
RB: Marion Barber vs. Darren McFadden
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Fred Taylor
RB/WR: Deuce McAllister vs. Ted Ginn, Jr.
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Steve Smith
WR: Dwayne Bowe vs. Joey Galloway
TE: Alge Crumpler vs. Tony Gonzales
D/ST: Patriots vs. Steelers
K: Jason Hanson vs. Stephen Gostkowski

Now, I have to think that he checks his team between now and Sunday and replaces Steve Smith with someone actually playing this week (though, my opponent has been known to have lapses in fantasy team management- but its Week 1, he's got to be paying attention). Looking at the rosters, I think it'll be a close week. According the ESPN.com's projections, I should win comfortably, but I'm not buying that just yet.

QB: I think I'm behind at QB, but who knows how hurt Brady really is/was and if not playing a snap in the preseason will effect him (not that preseason is any indicator- look at Palmer- but not seeing any game action has to have an effect). Hopefully Palmer (and the Bengals) can have a big day against a banged up Ravens defense and Brady really is hurt.

RB: I think I'm ahead at running back with Barber, Graham, and McAllister, but part of that is ESPN.com only projecting 10 points for McFadden. I think they're playing it safe because he's a rookie and no one knows how he'll fare in the NFL. He was Mr. Everything at Arkansas; I can't see why the Raiders (who have nothing else on offense) wouldn't be putting the ball in his hands somehow 30-40 times a game. Lots of chances for fantasy points, especially in Week 1 when you have the element of surprise. I expect McFadden to exceed 10 points and close the gap at RB.

WR/TE: Behind here, but not by much. I need Vince Young to fall in love with Alge Crumpler inside the red zone and for Brody Croyle to find Bowe in the end zone instead of Gonzales. And for Steve Smith to stay in his lineup.

DEF/K: These are such toss-up points, you never know what's going to happen. But the Pats are playing KC and the Steelers have Houston; Houston's a better team the KC, so I'd expect better DEF number for me. As for the kickers... they're kickers. As long as your guys doesn't go 0-4 on extra points (or 5-5 from 50+), everyone's pretty equal.

So I'm predicting a win for me in Week 1. Hope I didn't just jinx myself.